News

Anala Rajkot

#Sesame

Aug 16, 2024

Sesame Market Weekly Update

Sesame Market Weekly Update

Indian Sesame Prices Exhibit Stability with Minor Variations

  • The Indian sesame market has maintained stable prices, with Hulled Sesame currently trading between $2,03 to $2,05 per kilogram, reflecting a slight increase of $0,08 per kilogram.
  • In contrast, natural sesame prices have dropped from $1,71 to $1,65 per kilogram, reflecting a $0,06 per kilogram decrease.
  • Market analysts predict that low demand could cause a minor price drop of $0,02 to $0,04 per kilogram.
  • However, if domestic consumption rises or unexpected demand occurs, prices could increase by $0,02 to $0,05 per kilogram.
  • Over the coming months, we expect prices to fluctuate within a narrow range, with potential increases of $0,05 per kilogram or decreases of $0,03 per kilogram.
In addition, farmers in Gujarat expect a 20-25% reduction in Kharif sesame sowing. With a nationwide decrease anticipated to be 15-20% compared to previous years. This decline stems from persistent low prices and consistent crop failures, leading to decreased planting efforts annually. Gujarat currently sees weekly sesame arrivals averaging between 8,000 to 10,000 bags, while West Bengal averages between 4,000 to 5,000 bags weekly.

Brazilian Sesame Imports Expected to Affect Indian Market

  • India expects around 100 containers of sesame from Brazil to arrive at Mundra port by mid-August.
  • These imports, priced between $1,34 to $1,35 per kilogram at factory arrival, could significantly impact the Indian sesame market.
  • Brazil plans to export 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes of sesame to India this year, driven by competitive global pricing.
Pakistan also anticipates a robust sesame crop, with an estimated yield of 350,000 to 400,000 tonnes. However, recent weather conditions, including heat waves followed by the monsoon season, have affected crop quality, with yields expected to range from 200 to 250 kg/Ha compared to last year’s 320-400 kg/Ha. Despite these challenges, harvesting has commenced, and the country has not reported any significant losses so far. Pakistan primarily exports sesame seeds to China, Korea, Japan, the Middle East, Europe, and the U.S.. While minimal trade occurs with India due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Stability with Potential for Slight Price Adjustments

  • In the short term, white sesame prices in India are likely to remain stable at around $1,66 to $1,68 per kilogram.
  • Despite low demand, the market has demonstrated resilience, and the recent 4,800-tonne order in the Korean sesame tender has not had a significant impact.
  • India’s overall sesame stock is estimated at 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes, mainly from the summer crop.
Although prices are expected to remain steady, there is potential for a slight increase if market demand improves. Market conditions make it unlikely that prices will fall below $1,65 per kilogram, with the possibility of a rise to $1.71 per kilogram if demand strengthens. India’s success in securing significant volumes in recent Korean tenders further highlights the market’s resilience.

Monsoon Crop and Global Demand to Shape Future Prices

The upcoming monsoon sesame crop is expected to yield lower volumes, which may support price stability or even a slight increase. As the market anticipates the impact of the monsoon crop, short-term expectations lean towards stability with minor fluctuations. The long-term trends in the sesame market will depend on the success of the monsoon crop and global demand. Particularly from key importers like China. Additionally, a reduction in port stock in China and decreased sesame sowing in India could influence future price dynamics.

Conclusion

The Indian sesame market remains stable, with minor price fluctuations influenced by domestic and global demand. Brazilian imports and the upcoming monsoon crop will play crucial roles in determining future price trends. While significant declines are not expected, a slight price increase remains possible if demand rises.
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