Sharp Price Increase as Garlic Supply Dwindles

Garlic prices are climbing fast, with prices now ranging between 1,74 USD to 2,52 USD per kg. Just 15 days ago, prices were 0,60 USD lower. The surge comes as garlic production dropped by 50% this year. With many farmers cutting back on planting due to last year's low prices. Adding to the crunch, a significant portion of this year’s stock—about 25-30%—has spoiled. Leaving even less garlic available and driving prices up.

Garlic Set to Break New Price Records

If the current trend continues, garlic prices could hit 6 USD per kg by December, far surpassing last year’s peak of 4,80 USD. Many farmers, eager to sell early, let go of their garlic when prices were between 0,60 USD to 1,20 USD per kg. Now, with half of this season’s supply already on the market, the remaining stock is scarce. Unlike onions, which are harvested multiple times a year, garlic is harvested just once, making the supply even tighter as the next crop won’t arrive for another seven months.

In Saurashtra, traders who stocked up on garlic from Himachal and Kashmir at 0,72 USD per kg are now finding it sells for 1,74 USD. However, with little profit margin left, they’re hoping prices will rise further to cover their costs. The lack of garlic imports from China has also kept the market tight, preventing any major relief from the soaring prices.

What’s Next for the Garlic Market?

The outlook for garlic prices is strong, according to Dr. Rakesh Kakkar, with signs pointing to further increases. About 60% of India’s garlic stock has already been used up from February to August. Leaving just 40% to cover demand for the next 5-6 months. As winter approaches and the need for seed crops rises. The combination of dwindling supply and growing demand could push prices even higher. The daily arrival of garlic in markets has dropped to 50,000-60,000 sacks. With less garlic available, prices are likely to continue climbing.

Farmers' Challenges: Cost in Garlic Production

Farmers are focusing more on quality this season, opting for premium seeds like Syawan Silver, Shankar, Tulsi, Amleta, Kashmir, and Himachal varieties. However, these high-quality seeds come with risks—particularly if rains hit after planting, which could lead to significant losses. The high cost of planting Desi garlic, estimated at 0,92 USD per kg, is also discouraging farmers from taking on larger plots.

Despite these challenges, India’s dehydration garlic remains the most competitively priced globally, which could boost its demand. However, with Indian garlic now being the most expensive worldwide, export demand might struggle. A weakening rupee could make Indian garlic more attractive to foreign buyers. But for now, the focus remains on navigating the domestic market's volatility.

Garlic prices in India are climbing towards record highs due to a perfect storm of reduced supply and increased demand. With the market tightening, both farmers and traders must carefully manage costs and stock levels as they navigate a volatile market.