The cocoa harvest in Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, is approaching with a renewed sense of hope. After three years of weather-related setbacks that impacted global prices, October, the month when fieldwork begins, is bringing optimism to producers.

Improved Weather Conditions in West Africa

Return of the Rainy Season

• West Africa, which accounts for over 60% of global cocoa production, is experiencing the return of the rainy season.
• This has provided relief to cocoa plantations, with trees showing full pods and very green leaves—positive pre-harvest signs.

Positive Outlook for Global Supply

• Some international agencies view these developments as a good sign for global cocoa supply.
• The 2023-24 biennium experienced scarcity and record prices, making the current outlook a welcome change.

Challenges from Disease and Climate Impacts

Effects of El Niño

• Diseases caused by El Niño have left irreversible damage to some cocoa plants.
• However, producers are making efforts to recover, as noted by the International Cocoa Organization

(ICCO).Ghana's Recovery Efforts

• Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer, has reported a mixed harvest.
• The government noted that 81% of the country's cocoa harvest is infested with bean diseases.
• Despite this, the harvest is expected to reach 800,000 metric tons for the year, reflecting an accelerated recovery effort.

Cocoa Prices Remain High Despite Production Gains

Persistent High Prices

• Challenges such as disease and climate impacts are likely to keep cocoa prices well above historical norms.
• A shift to La Niña promises better weather, and some analysts expect global production to exceed demand for the first time in four seasons.

Ivory Coast's Smaller Harvest

• A smaller harvest in Ivory Coast is contributing to bullish cocoa prices.
• Government data indicated that Ivorian farmers shipped 1.67 million tons of cocoa to ports from October 1 to August 11, a 28% drop compared to the same period last year.
• Traders are currently selling cocoa beans at a FOB price of $6,426.00 per ton.