As we dive into the heart of the almond harvest season, it’s time to take a closer look at where we stand in the market and what lies ahead. August has brought us back to more familiar weather patterns, and with harvest in full swing, we’re starting to see the first glimpses of this year’s crop. While there are a few bumps in the road, the overall outlook is promising.

August Weather and Harvest Conditions

• Temperature Update: August temperatures have returned to typical levels, and the extended forecast suggests they will stay in the average range. This is beneficial for the almond harvest, as it helps manage moisture levels both on the trees and on the ground before sweeping.
• Early Harvest Observations: Initial almond loads are showing low moisture and smaller sizes compared to last year, which is common for early harvests. These early indicators shouldn't be overemphasized, as more reliable data will become available in the coming weeks.

2023 Crop Year Recap

• Final Shipment Report: The latest shipment report, released two weeks ago, showed total crop receipts of 2.446 billion pounds, a decrease of nearly 5% from the previous year's 2.571 billion pounds.
• Carry-Out and Shipments: Despite this decrease, the industry shipped 2.692 billion pounds, up 5% from last year, thanks to a carry-out of 800 million pounds from the previous year. This year’s carry-out is expected to be around 451 million pounds, the smallest since 2020, but the quality of the remaining product is not ideal. Finding unpurchased product to ship over the next month will be challenging.

Looking Ahead: 2024/2025 Crop

• New Crop Estimate: The Objective Estimate for the 2024/2025 crop is 2.8 billion pounds. Initial expectations had placed the crop between 2.9 and 3.1 billion pounds. However, given the margin of error, the crop could range between 2.68 and 2.91 billion pounds. The industry is currently marketing it as a 2.8 billion-pound crop until further data is available.
• Early Sales: The industry has already booked over 379 million pounds of the new crop, an 85% increase from last year’s 205 million pounds at the same time.

Market Trends and Expectations

• Current Market Firmness: Strong shipments this season and a smaller carry-out have led to a firm market over the past six weeks. Despite higher prices, almonds remain a good value compared to other tree nuts. This firmness is expected to continue through the fourth quarter of 2024.
• Potential Market Shifts: Depending on the actual crop size and shipment performance, the market may shift. If shipments fall short or the crop exceeds estimates, buying opportunities could arise in the fourth quarter. However, if shipments stay strong and the crop meets or is smaller than estimated, prices could rise leading into the February bloom.

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Position Report: September 12, 2024

Almond Market Trends - Week 34

• Bullish Trends:
  • Early sales and commitments for the new crop have boosted growers' confidence, allowing for smaller, cautious sales.
  • The industry shipped 2.692 billion pounds last year, the second-highest in history, setting a strong momentum for the new crop year.
  • The current crop is nearly sold out, with a tight carry-out of less than 451 million pounds, leading to a challenging transition.
• Bearish Trends:
  • Higher prices have been established with fewer transactions, as many buyers are hesitant and waiting on the sidelines.
  • Limited supply remaining before the new crop could result in weak August and September shipments. This puts the industry behind in the new crop year.
  • Export shipments face delays due to equipment shortages, potentially causing more issues in the coming weeks.

Source: Nuts by ofi