StatCan Updates Crop Projections for 2024/25 Season

Statistics Canada (StatCan) has released its latest agricultural forecast, revealing significant changes in crop production estimates for the upcoming 2024/25 marketing year. While the outlook for wheat, canola, and soybeans is more optimistic, the projections for corn and barley have been revised downward compared to the previous year.

Favorable Weather Boosts Wheat, Canola, and Soybean Yields

Improved weather conditions in Western Canada have played a key role in raising the production forecasts for several major crops. StatCan expects Canada’s wheat production to increase by 4.3% to 34.4 million tonnes. This boost is largely driven by a 5.9% rise in yield to 48.5 bushels per acre, which offsets a slight 1.6% reduction in planted area to 26 million acres. However, the impact varies by type: spring wheat production is set to decrease slightly by 0.7% to 25.4 million tonnes, while durum wheat production is forecasted to jump by 47% to 6 million tonnes.

Canola production is also expected to see a modest rise of 1.6%, reaching 19.5 million tonnes. This is due to a 1.8% increase in yield, despite a small decline in the area planted. In Saskatchewan, the largest canola-producing province, production is forecasted to rise by 2.9% to 10.6 million tonnes, supported by a 5.4% yield increase.

Soybean production is projected to grow by 2.4% to 7.1 million tonnes, thanks to a combination of increased planted area and slightly better yields. Ontario is expected to lead this growth, with a 6.9% rise in soybean output.

Heat and Drought Impact Prairie Yields

Despite the overall positive trend, heat and moisture deficits in parts of the Canadian prairies have negatively impacted yield potential, particularly in Saskatchewan. As a result, while Alberta and Manitoba are expected to see increased harvests, Saskatchewan’s wheat and canola yields are likely to be lower than last year.

Corn and Barley Production Set to Decline

On the downside, StatCan has lowered its estimates for corn and barley production. The corn crop is forecasted to drop by 1.2% to 15.2 million tonnes, driven by a 5.2% reduction in planted area. Even though yields are expected to improve slightly, they won’t be enough to offset the decline in acreage.

Barley production is expected to see a more significant decline of 16.1%, with both yield and planted area falling compared to the previous year. The total barley output is projected at 7.5 million tonnes, marking a substantial drop from the 2023/24 season.

Oat Production Expected to Rise

In contrast to barley, oat production is forecasted to grow by 10.1% to 2.9 million tonnes. This increase is primarily due to a 14.6% expansion in planted area, which more than compensates for a slight decrease in yield.

Mixed Outlook for Canadian Farmers

The latest projections from StatCan present a mixed outlook for Canadian farmers. While some crops like wheat, canola, and soybeans are benefiting from favorable conditions, others like corn and barley face challenges due to adverse weather and reduced planting areas. As the 2024/25 season approaches, these forecasts will be closely watched by stakeholders across the agricultural industry.