Dalian – As the new grain season progresses from September to November, the market is expected to experience an increase in the circulation of grains, potentially leading to price adjustments. Analysts predict that over the next three months, cereal prices will first rise and then fall, as market dynamics shift.

September Surge: New Season Grains Flood the Market

In September, a significant influx of new season grains will enter the market, driven by active shipments from farmers eager to capitalize on the early harvest. As the supply of cereals increases, market conditions are expected to temporarily push prices higher.

However, while demand from downstream buyers is improving, the rate of demand growth is unlikely to match the rapid supply release. This imbalance could lead to a potential price adjustment as we head deeper into the season.

October-November Forecast: Prices May Fall Back

Heading into October and November, it is anticipated that cereal prices will begin to stabilize or fall back slightly as the market adjusts to the growing supply. The oversupply, coupled with moderate demand growth, may contribute to a downward trend in prices.

Current Market Prices: FOB China for Chinese Hulled Millet

At present, the Free On Board (FOB) China price for Chinese hulled millet remains steady, though market fluctuations are expected as the grain circulation increases throughout the season. Buyers and sellers should closely monitor the supply-demand balance, particularly as farmers continue to bring new stocks to market.

Key Factors to Watch

As the market navigates through the next few months, several factors will play a crucial role in shaping the pricing trend:

• Supply Chain Dynamics: As new grains flood the market, oversupply may lead to price declines.
• Demand Trends: While downstream demand is improving, it is still slower than the pace of new grain shipments.
• Market Adjustments: As prices adjust to the evolving supply-demand balance, buyers should be cautious about long-term purchasing strategies.