Price Movements and Import Trends of Chickpeas
Current Market Scenario
As the festive season approaches, chana (chickpeas) prices in key consuming markets like Delhi and Jaipur are reaching seasonal highs. This surge is driven by increased demand, which typically peaks during this period. However, market experts predict that prices will begin to ease once the Australian chana harvest commences in mid-October. Throughout the 2024 marketing season, chana prices have remained bullish due to a lower-than-expected harvest during the rabi season of 2023-24. This limited supply, combined with festive demand, has pushed prices upward. In response to the supply constraints, the Indian government removed the 66% import duty on chana in early May, aiming to boost imports and stabilize prices.Price Trends and Government Interventions
In May 2024, chana prices in Delhi hovered. By September, they had risen significantly, marking a 26-27% increase over four months. This rise is largely attributed to the heightened demand ahead of festivals. However, industry experts suggest that this upward trend may not last. With the arrival of the Australian chana crop in mid-October, prices are expected to ease as supply increases. They also note that while chana prices have surged, the government's interventions have helped keep the prices of other pulses relatively stable. In anticipation of a shortfall in the chana crop, the government had earlier allowed the import of yellow peas at zero duty, extending the import window until October 31, 2024. Yellow peas are considered a close substitute for chana and play a significant role in India's pulses market.Production and Import Data
According to the second advance estimate, chana production during the 2023-24 season was lower than anticipated, totaling 12.161 million tonnes, down from the previous year's 12.267 million tonnes. However, according to industry sources, actual production figures may be even lower. To address the shortfall, India has significantly increased its import of pulses. From December 2023 to July 2024, over 2.075 million tonnes of yellow peas were imported. Additionally, imports of desi chickpeas during April-July 2024 reached approximately 65,507 tonnes, a stark increase from the 1,341 tonnes imported during the same period last year.The India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) has noted mixed trends in chana prices across different markets. Some markets experienced price drops due to low buying interest and the availability of cheaper alternatives. In contrast, others saw high prices as sellers withheld stocks, anticipating further price increases with ongoing festival demand. Recently, the resellers have been actively selling off their stocks, indicating that demand may taper off as the festival season concludes. The availability of lower-priced yellow peas could also exert downward pressure on chana prices. Additionally, as the Australian chickpea harvest progresses, prices are expected to stabilize or even decrease due to increased output driven by favorable weather conditions.