The Strategie Grains agency has once again lowered its forecasts for agricultural crop production in the EU, which has provided support to stock market quotations.

Gradual Recovery in Rapeseed Prices

Rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange, after hitting the lowest values of the season two weeks ago, have gradually recovered to early August levels. Despite the significant reduction in the forecast for rapeseed production in the EU and Ukraine, as well as the worsening of the rapeseed balance in the EU for the 2024/25 marketing year, traders have largely remained unreactive.

Updated Rapeseed Harvest Forecasts

Last week, the European Commission lowered the official forecast for the 2024/25 EU rapeseed harvest from 18.4 million tonnes to 18 million tonnes. This figure represents a 9.4% decrease from the 2023/24 harvest of 19.7 million tonnes. In comparison, the USDA had estimated the EU’s rapeseed production for 2024/25 at 18.9 million tonnes in its August report. The import forecast remains unchanged at 5.85 million tonnes, while final stocks are expected to be around 833,000 tonnes.

Strategie Grains Reduces EU Rapeseed and Sunflower Forecasts

For the fourth time this season, the Strategie Grains agency revised its forecast for the EU’s 2024 rapeseed production down from 17.27 million tonnes to 16.9 million tonnes. This reduction is mainly due to lower output in countries such as Germany, France, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Baltic states. Additionally, the forecast for the EU’s sunflower crop was lowered from 9.65 million tonnes to 9.3 million tonnes, compared to 9.8 million tonnes in 2023, further intensifying the shortage of raw materials for European processors.

Ukraine’s Reduced Rapeseed Exports

In 2024, Ukraine harvested 3.4 million tonnes of rapeseed out of an estimated 3.7–4 million tonnes. Consequently, exports are expected to fall from 3.3 million tonnes to around 2.7–2.8 million tonnes.

Increasing Canola Imports in the EU

Given the recent production forecasts, the EU is expected to import an additional 2–3 million tonnes of canola. However, this might prove challenging as Australia’s canola crop forecast has been reduced, while Canada’s production is expected to remain steady.

According to ABARES, Australia’s canola production is set to decrease by 8% in 2024 compared to 2023, with an estimated output of 5.5 million tonnes, which is still 22% higher than the 10-year average.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Bureau of StatCan projects a 1.6% increase in the country’s 2024/25 canola crop, bringing production to 19.5 million tonnes. The USDA has forecasted it at 20 million tonnes, although some local analysts expect a slightly lower figure due to dry weather in certain provinces.

Rapeseed Market Reactions

November rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange rose by 2.4% last week, reaching €471.25 per tonne or $521 per tonne (-0.2% for the month, -2.8% for the year).

In Ukraine, the purchase prices for rapeseed delivered to Black Sea ports increased by 200–300 UAH per tonne, reaching 22,600–23,000 UAH per tonne or $475–485 per tonne. Farmers are actively selling canola while holding back sales of wheat, barley, and sunflower due to low prices and poor harvests.

In Canada’s Saskatchewan province, by August 29, 8% of the canola crop had been harvested. Favorable weather conditions are expected to increase the volume of canola offers soon.