The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has significantly increased its wheat harvest forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year, thanks to favorable rainfall in key growing regions.

Wheat Harvest Projections Revised Upward

ABARES has raised its wheat production forecast by 2.7 million tons, expecting a total harvest of 31.8 million tons in 2024/25. This would exceed both last year’s production of 26 million tons and the 10-year average by 22%. However, the wheat export forecast has been slightly lowered to 20.9 million tons, marking a 7% decrease from the 2023/24 fiscal year. Despite this drop, exports are still expected to be 10% higher than the 10-year average.

Similarly, the USDA’s August report increased its wheat harvest projection for Australia by 1 million tons, bringing it to 30 million tons. It also raised the wheat export forecast to 23 million tons.

Barley and Canola Forecasts

In addition to wheat, ABARES has also revised its barley production forecast for the 2024/25 season. Production is now expected to reach 12.2 million tons, which is 13% higher than last year and 7% above the 10-year average.

However, the outlook for canola is not as positive. The canola harvest is estimated at 5.5 million tons, which is 8% lower than the 2023 harvest. Still, this figure remains 22% higher than the 10-year average, showing resilience despite a slight decline.

Local Analysts Provide Broader Wheat Estimates

According to Reuters, local analysts have provided broader estimates for Australia's 2024/25 wheat crop, ranging between 30.25 million and 36 million tons, with the median estimate at 31.1 million tons. Improved rainfall in key growing regions is largely responsible for these optimistic projections, as higher-than-expected wheat yields are anticipated.

In contrast, analysts estimate barley production at 11.6 million tons and rapeseed production at around 5.5 million tons.

Weather Impact on Australian Wheat Crops

Western Australia, the country’s largest wheat-producing state, experienced severe drought conditions earlier in the season. However, rainfall began in June, which has significantly boosted wheat crops, particularly in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia. These regions are now seeing plants reach key stages of development ahead of the harvest, set to begin in October.

Looking ahead, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts above-average temperatures across all regions in the coming months, with rainfall expected to remain above average in September. This weather forecast will play a crucial role in determining the final wheat yields for the 2024/25 season.

Australia’s agricultural outlook appears strong for the 2024/25 season, particularly for wheat and barley. The revised forecasts paint a picture of recovery, especially following early-season drought concerns. While canola production has taken a slight hit, it remains above the 10-year average, showcasing resilience. Moving forward, it will be essential to monitor how weather patterns evolve, especially in regions like Western Australia, where late-season rains have already shown significant positive effects.

The balance between production and exports will also be crucial in the months ahead, especially as the global market reacts to Australia's increased output.