Oil World (Germany) predicts that global sunflower exports will drop to their lowest level in nine years during the 2024/25 marketing year (MY), with total exports expected to reach just 2.36 million tons, down from 2.69 million tons in the previous season. The decrease in oilseed production is a major factor driving this decline.

Sharp Declines in Exports from Key Regions

Notable reductions in sunflower exports are expected from several key regions:

• European Union: Exports are forecasted to drop from 460,000 tons in the 2023/24 season to just 330,000 tons.
• Moldova: Expected to see a significant decrease from 470,000 tons to 340,000 tons.
• Ukraine: Exports are projected to plummet from 310,000 tons to just 130,000 tons.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Agricultural Policy had previously lowered its sunflower harvest estimates to 12 million tons, while USDA analysts further reduced their forecast to 13.5 million tons in the August report.

Russia and Kazakhstan: Diverging Trends in Sunflower Production

Sunflower production forecasts in Russia are also being revised downward. ProZerno, an analytics company, cut its forecast by 0.6 million tons, lowering the expected harvest to 15 million tons. Meanwhile, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) adjusted its forecast from 16 million tons to 15.4 million tons.

In contrast, Kazakhstan is expected to see a rise in sunflower exports, with an increase from 190,000 tons in 2023/24 MY to 250,000 tons in 2024/25 MY.

Impact on European and Turkish Refineries

The reduced sunflower production is expected to create significant challenges for refineries in the European Union and Türkiye. Oil World analysts predict that the EU’s sunflower seed processing volume will drop by 0.4 million tons, bringing the total to 8.8 million tons for the 2024/25 MY.

Limited Price Increases Despite Supply Shortages

Despite the reduced production, sunflower oil prices are not expected to rise sharply. The downward trend in global vegetable oil prices, combined with falling feed grain prices, is likely to keep sunflower oil price increases in check.

The sharp decline in sunflower exports signals a challenging year ahead for both producers and processors, especially in regions like the EU and Türkiye. While supply shortages are driving concern, the global market dynamics—particularly the drop in vegetable oil prices—are expected to temper any significant price increases for sunflower oil. As the world navigates these supply shifts, market players will need to remain agile to adapt to the changing landscape. The upcoming months will be critical in determining how these factors will shape global sunflower trade.