In a recent report from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Sofia, Bulgaria, it was revealed that the country's sunflower production for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) is expected to reach its lowest point in over a decade. Due to extreme heat and drought conditions during critical growth periods, sunflower yields have plummeted, and production is now forecasted at just 1.7 million metric tons (MMT). This represents a 4% decrease from the previous year and a 21% drop compared to the 2022/23 MY.

Record Heat and Drought Slash Sunflower Yields

Between mid-June and the end of August, Bulgaria experienced one of its hottest and driest summers on record. Temperatures in July soared above 35°C for more than 10 consecutive days, with some regions seeing temperatures reach up to 41°C. The lack of rainfall, particularly in Western Bulgaria, further exacerbated the situation, with soil moisture levels dropping drastically. These harsh conditions severely affected the pollination and grain-filling stages of sunflower crops, resulting in smaller, poorly pollinated seeds with lower oil content—reportedly around 40%.

Impact on Bulgarian Exports and Domestic Production

The drastic drop in sunflower production is expected to lead to a significant decline in Bulgaria's sunflower oil and meal exports, as the country struggles with lower beginning stocks and expanded crushing capacity. Bulgarian processors may be forced to rely on imports to meet demand, but sourcing will be difficult due to reduced sunflower crops in other major producing regions, including Ukraine and the Black Sea region.

Bulgaria, one of the European Union's top sunflower crushers, is now facing a tighter supply-demand balance. As a result, the country's previously robust export markets for sunflower oil and meal outside the EU may shrink in the coming year, leading to potential market losses and increased competition for oilseed imports across the EU.

Wider European and Global Implications

The sunflower crop shortfall in Bulgaria is expected to have ripple effects across the European Union and beyond. With Bulgaria playing a key role in EU sunflower oil production, the supply deficit could lead to increased EU import demand for oilseeds and vegetable oils. Additionally, the reduced production and lower exports from Bulgaria, combined with the ongoing challenges in Ukraine, are likely to contribute to higher prices for sunflower-based products.

In 2012 Bulgaria had a similarly hot and dry summer. Check our graph below to see the impact of the hot summer on the sunflower market in 2012.



The extreme weather conditions in Bulgaria this summer have taken a heavy toll on the country’s sunflower production, highlighting the vulnerabilities of global agricultural supply chains to climate change. With exports projected to drop significantly, both Bulgaria and its trading partners will need to navigate the challenges of reduced supply and rising demand. This situation is likely to drive up prices for sunflower oil and related products, creating further challenges for industries dependent on these commodities. As we move further into the 2024/25 marketing year, it will be crucial to monitor how Bulgaria and the wider EU adapt to these shifts in the global sunflower market.