Favorable Weather to Drive Peanut Seed Price Drop

Industry expert Vimal Tolia predicts that peanut seed prices will gradually decrease if favorable weather continues. The peanut crop in India looks strong this year, provided no further storms or heavy rains occur. The monsoon may withdraw later than usual, but the outlook remains positive. With stable weather conditions, this season could witness a record peanut harvest.

Between October 1 to October 15, peanut prices in Singdana ranged from $1,09 to $1,10 per kilogram for 80-90 counts in Pathwada. Prices for 50-60 counts stood at $1,14 to $1,15 per kilogram. Although prices may drop, major demand increases are unlikely since many countries will have already completed their grain purchases.

New peanut arrivals should begin by the end of October and November, likely leading to further price reductions. Demand during this period will influence market conditions. Pathawada TJ and bold peanut varieties are expected to arrive after Diwali, potentially lowering prices even more.

China's Strong Peanut Crop and Global Market Impact

China expects a 10% increase in peanut production compared to last year, but its struggling economy will likely limit demand. The international market has seen Pathawada-quality TJ peanuts priced between $1,17 to $1,19 per kg for 50-60 counts and $1,15 to $1,16 per kg for 80-90 counts.

Peanut export demand has remained low this month. Singtel loose peanuts with 0.50% FFA are priced at $1,50 per kg, but new-season stock will likely push the price down to $1,40 per kg. Old grain stocks may go to local crushing, given the lack of interest in trading them.

Gujarat’s Peanut Production Outlook Remains Positive

Industry analyst Jayesh Acharya forecasts that Gujarat will produce 5 to 5.5 million tonnes of peanuts this season. Another expert Amit Gadhiya, also forecast a peanut crop of 5 million tonnes this season. Increased sowing, especially in Saurashtra, has contributed to this optimistic outlook. The region expects a bumper crop if no heavy rains disrupt conditions. In Gujarat, India,  although some areas have seen minor damage, overall conditions remain favorable.

New peanut arrivals will likely begin after Navratri, in late October. Currently, bold peanut sells for $1,12 to $1,12 per kilogram, while TJ quality is priced at $1,08 to $1,09 per kilogram. Despite low export demand, the local market has remained steady, supported by minimal local interest. If weather remains favorable, prices could drop by $0,058 per kilogram during the new season.

Optimistic Outlook for Peanut Price Decline

In conclusion, favorable weather conditions are expected to result in strong peanut production in India and globally. With new crops arriving in October and November, prices will likely decrease further, benefiting both buyers and producers in the upcoming season.