Corn prices are rapidly catching up with feed wheat on FOB basis. It returns corn to the status of the main driver of the grain market in Ukraine.

It looks like crop 2024 reduction in Ukraine will be more significant than expected. According to forecasts of the Ukrainian Grain Association, the corn harvest in 2024 will decrease by 21%, to 23.4 million tons. This will lead to a decrease in exports by almost 30% - from 26 million tons to 18.5 million tons.

Price dynamics very indicatively reflects these forecasts. Since mid-June, corn has been around 20 usd/t cheaper than feed wheat. Today, the difference has almost disappeared. And the premium for wheat with 11.5% protein to corn is only 10 usd/t in Ukraine.

Market Factors

Corn prices received support from global markets. Prices in Chicago have recovered above the psychological $4/bushel mark, which should support the market. A reduction in yields in the US will further strengthen the position of corn.

Growth in the oilseeds market is also supporting the grains complex, as seen through soybean/corn on the CBOT and canola/wheat on Euronext.

For the moment corn has relatively high price in Ukraine. It is trading $20 higher than the contract in Chicago. This is due to the fact that farmers are in no hurry to sell, expecting an increase in demand.

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