The WASDE report for soybeans contained no surprises, but the USDA Oilseeds report provided more interesting insights on the rapeseed market.

Soybean Futures Show Little Reaction to WASDE Report

Rapeseed futures on Euronext closed almost unchanged on Thursday, while soybeans were slightly higher on the CBoT. The November soybean contract was up 10.25 ct at 1,010.75 ct/bu.

WASDE Report Largely in Line with Expectations

There were no major surprises in the WASDE report for soybeans. As expected, the USDA maintained the soybean crop estimate at 53.2 bpd. The US crop forecast was revised slightly down to 124.81 million tonnes. Beginning and ending stocks for 2024/25 were also revised marginally lower. Global ending stocks and production figures saw minor upward adjustments, but the revisions were in line with market expectations and did not cause significant reactions in the market.

USDA Lowers Rapeseed Production Forecast

In a separate USDA report on global oilseed markets, the forecast for global rapeseed production in 2024/25 was reduced from 88.83 million tonnes to 87.56 million tonnes. This decrease is primarily due to a reduction in the EU crop size, from 18.9 million tonnes to 17.65 million tonnes.

Global Rapeseed Ending Stocks Increase

The USDA now projects global ending stocks for rapeseed at 8.34 million tonnes, up from 7.98 million tonnes in August. However, this is a decline compared to 10.25 million tonnes at the end of the 2023/24 marketing year. The increase in ending stocks is largely attributed to Canada, with recent data from StatsCan supporting this upward revision. In contrast, EU ending stocks have been revised sharply down from 1.56 million tonnes in August to 979,000 tonnes.

EU Imports to Compensate for Production Shortfall

The USDA expects the EU to compensate for the reduced production by increasing rapeseed imports. Imports have been raised by 300,000 tonnes to 6.6 million tonnes. EU rapeseed crushing was also cut by 300,000 tonnes, now projected at 24.45 million tonnes. Despite the larger global soybean harvest, the tight supply balance for rapeseed in the EU suggests that prices should stabilize in the coming months.

US Soybean Export Sales Strong

USDA export sales figures for soybeans for the week ending 5 September were strong, totaling 1.474 million tonnes, at the upper end of market expectations. China accounted for the majority of the purchases with 962,600 tonnes. However, soybean meal sales were a net reduction for the 2023/24 marketing year, while sales for the 2024/25 marketing year were at the lower end of estimates, totaling 276,031 tonnes.

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