India: Mixed Signals with Rainfall Concerns and Improved Prospects

In Gujarat, the sesame crop remains in its reproductive stage, with unpredictable rainfall patterns. While the ideal weekly rainfall should range between 25-40 mm, recent heavy downpours have affected the crop. A clearer picture of the harvest's potential will be available by early October, but there are growing concerns about waterlogging and potential crop losses. Farmers in Uttar Pradesh report that the crop is in good condition, and they expect this year’s harvest to surpass last year’s production levels.

The sowing area in India decreased from 1.18 million hectares last year to 1.08 million hectares this year, and no significant improvement in sowing conditions has been noted. Gujarat continues to face increasing concerns due to continued rains.

China: Expansion of Sowing Area but Challenges Remain

China expects the sesame planting area to increase by 27% to 280,000 hectares this year, compared to 220,600 hectares last year. However, adverse weather conditions, including heavy rains and heatwaves, are likely to cause a 20% decline in production. The primary producing regions—Henan, Anhui, Hubei, and Jiangxi—face lower yields, particularly in areas affected by flooding and delayed planting.

China’s sesame supply remains under pressure despite an increase in stocks. Last week’s sesame stocks at Qingdao Port stood at 152,100 metric tons, and this week, the inventory rose slightly to 154,200 metric tons. Even with this increase, downstream demand remains weak, putting continued pressure on prices as traders work to clear inventory.

Africa: Ethiopia and Sudan Show Growth Potential

Ethiopia and Sudan are continuing their sowing activities. Ethiopia’s sesame crop is projected to reach 200,000 metric tons for the 2024-25 season, as more land is being allocated to sesame due to lower soybean and mung bean prices. Sudan’s production will increase, and the country has already exported approximately 153,000 metric tons by the end of July, matching last year’s figures. Rain-fed sesame farming is expected to boost production in Sudan, thanks to favorable weather conditions this season.

In Africa, Ethiopia and Sudan show growth potential, with favorable weather conditions supporting increased production. This is in contrast to last year’s less favorable planting season in Sudan, where production struggled due to weather challenges.

Global Price Movements: Mixed Trends Across Regions

India’s sesame prices have shown some volatility this week. At Mundra Port, prices for hulled sesame (99.98% purity) rose from $163-$164/kg last week to $165-$166/kg this week. Premium grades saw similar price hikes. Meanwhile, Gwalior experienced a 3.1% increase in prices for white sesame, with rates rising from $129/kg to $133/kg. However, markets like Narasaraopet and Agra saw no significant changes.

In China, prices continued to soften, particularly for Tanzanian sesame, which saw a 3.43% decline last week. The overall price pressure in China remains strong, as port traders work to offload excess inventory, further depressing prices.

In China, oversupply is pushing prices down. Meanwhile, India faces rising prices due to rainfall affecting supply.

Global Market Remains Uncertain

India’s weather challenges are threatening crop yields. China struggles with price pressure from excess supply. Ethiopia and Sudan show promising growth, which may ease global shortages. However, India’s unpredictable rainfall and China’s inventory issues could keep the market volatile in the weeks ahead.

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