The USDA has lowered its forecast for global ending stocks despite higher US production, partly due to a smaller EU crop.

Corn Trading Sees Modest Gains

Corn trading on the CBoT closed slightly higher on Thursday. The most actively traded December contract rose by 1.25 cents, closing at 406 cents/bu. On Euronext, the November future gained EUR1, reaching a weekly high of EUR203.75/t.

WASDE Report Raises US Corn Yield Estimate

The latest WASDE report provided mixed signals for the corn market. The USDA raised its US corn yield estimate by 0.5 bpd to a record high of 183.6 bpd, surpassing analysts' expectations of a slight decline. US corn production is now estimated at 15.186 billion bpd, an increase from August’s estimate of 15.147 billion bpd and the second largest on record.

Lower Global and US Ending Stocks Forecasted

Despite the increase in US production, the USDA lowered its forecast for US and global corn ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year. This decline is due to lower beginning stocks in the US and a smaller global crop, particularly driven by a 1.5 million tonne reduction in the EU's corn crop to 59 million tonnes.

Global Corn Consumption Outlook

In addition to the reduced crop estimates, the USDA slightly raised its forecast for global corn consumption, which is now estimated to be higher than the August projections. This increase in demand, coupled with the smaller crop, is contributing to the overall tightening of global corn supplies.

USDA Export Sales Report Below Expectations

In its Export Sales report, the USDA reported US corn sales of 666,500 tonnes for the week ending 5 September. This figure was below trade expectations, which ranged from 700,000 to 1.6 million tonnes. Additionally, the USDA confirmed private sales of 118,626 tonnes of US corn to undisclosed destinations as part of its daily reporting.

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