Stable Prices, but a Marginal Increase Expected in India

Turmeric prices in India have held steady in recent weeks, with traders noting that they’ve been consistently trading at moderate levels. However, a slight rise in prices is anticipated as the Indian festive season approaches. One Indian trader remarked, “Domestic demand has been quiet, and the market has stabilized. But with festivals around the corner, we expect prices to tick upward soon.”

Currently, turmeric prices in India remain in the moderate range. Another trader explained, “After May, demand usually slows down, but we’re seeing signs that local demand will pick up again this month.” Recent market trends have shown a temporary drop in prices, but the upcoming festivals are likely to give the market a boost.

Festive Season and Export Demand Drive Indian Market Trends

The upcoming festive season in India, which spans around 40 days, is expected to increase turmeric demand and may push prices higher. Analysts predict that prices could rise during this period, but they may stabilize after November 15. While prices might cool off post-festivals, the market is likely to see some gains until then.

In addition to domestic demand, strong export activity has played a key role in stabilizing prices. "Exports have been strong, helping balance the market," an analyst confirmed. Indian turmeric exports between April and May 2024 reached 46,497 tonnes, lower than last year's 57,557 tonnes. However, the value of exports increased by 44%. Higher per-tonne realizations have allowed Indian traders to benefit, despite the reduced volume.

Anticipation of Higher Production in India

Looking ahead, the Indian market anticipates a significant increase in turmeric production next year, which could influence price trends. Some traders are holding onto their stock, hesitant to sell at current prices. Analysts forecast a potential 30% increase in turmeric production in India for the next year.

Rainfall continues to be a critical factor affecting Indian turmeric crops. In parts of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, waterlogging has caused approximately 10% damage to the crops. Farmers in these regions are closely monitoring the weather, as further rainfall could exacerbate crop damage. However, Nizamabad-based trader Kataria believes the recent rains in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana won’t significantly impact overall production.

Golden Opportunity for International Buyers

For international buyers and exporters, the Indian turmeric market presents a promising opportunity, driven by strong festival demand and solid export activity. Prices have remained stable recently, but the upcoming Indian festive season will likely cause a slight price increase. With production set to rise next year, the market could experience more stable supply. However, weather-related disruptions remain a risk.





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