Favorable Weather Helps Stabilize India’s Guar Market

India’s guar seed and gum markets continue to maintain stable pricing, largely due to favorable weather conditions across major producing states. Mitul Shah, an industry expert, explained that timely rains in key regions have helped the guar crop flourish this season. As a result, prices for guar seed and gum are expected to remain steady in the Indian market.

Currently, seed prices hover around $0,60/kg, while gum prices sit near $1,08/kg. Buyers usually increase purchasing only when prices drop to these levels. New crop arrivals are expected in Haryana and Punjab by the end of September or early October, while Rajasthan’s harvest will likely begin in November.

In Rajasthan’s canal regions, new crop has grown well, with no significant issues reported. The crop yield looks promising, and no major damage from heavy rainfall has occurred.

Steady Production and Market Activity

The upcoming season should produce around 10 million bags of guar, while demand for seed remains at a normal pace. Export demand for gum products hasn’t seen a noticeable rise, but by-products such as Churi and Korma continue to hold steady. Churi is currently priced at $0,35/kg, and Korma at $0,46/kg. The higher price of soybeans, now at $0,44/kg, has lowered demand for Korma.

Guar gum mills remain operational without disruptions, and those temporarily closed will likely resume activity when the new crop arrives. Vallabh Patel, another analyst, expects prices for guar seed to rise to $0,66/kg and gum to increase to $1.44/kg if market speculation eases.

Regional Challenges for India's Guar Crop

In Gujarat, heavy rains have reduced cultivation by 40% compared to last year, causing some crop damage. Farmers expect the new guar harvest to begin in late October. In Rajasthan’s western regions, such as Bikaner, Jaisalmer, and Barmer, a lack of rain in August leaves the crop outlook uncertain. Farmers will need two more rounds of rainfall by mid-October to ensure a good yield.

In regions like Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, and Nagaur, heavy rains have worsened fungal diseases in canal areas, damaging some crops. Despite these challenges, guar sowing in Rajasthan has only decreased by 20%. If we compare with last year farmers anticipate new arrivals after October 15.

Market Speculation and Future Projections

India produced between 6 to 6.5 million bags of guar last season, but experts predict a decrease of 1.5 million bags this year, projecting between 5 to 5.5 million bags for the current season. Yields, which typically range from 2 to 2.5 quintals per hectare, may fall below 1 quintal this year due to adverse weather conditions.

Speculators have kept prices for guar seed and gum artificially low. If speculation decreases, prices could rise to $0,66/kg for guar seed and $1,44/kg for guar gum. The export market for guar gum and its derivatives remains steady, with monthly exports totaling 28,000 to 30,000 tonnes, although August shipments were slightly lower, at 26,000 to 27,000 tonnes.

Price Forecast and Export Activity

Rajni Gopani, a market analyst, believes guar seed prices will remain above $0,60/kg, while guar gum should stay above $1,20/kg. Current prices range from $0,61 to $0,62/kg for guar seed and $1,25 to $1,26/kg for guar gum. No major fluctuations are expected until the new season begins.

In Gujarat, guar cultivation has dropped by 15% to 20%, with crop damage affecting regions like Kutch. Farmers expect new guar revenue to start arriving between Navratri and Diwali, depending on rainfall. Export demand for Korma remains strong, with prices ranging from $0,40 to $0,49/kg. Guar mills in Gujarat, currently closed, will likely reopen when the new crop becomes available.

Challenges Ahead for India’s Guar Market

India’s guar gum market looks stable for now, supported by favorable weather in key regions. However, challenges remain, particularly in areas affected by heavy rainfall or insufficient rain. Prices should stay steady until the new season arrives, but market speculation and regional crop difficulties could lead to future price changes. Export demand for guar gum and its derivatives remains strong, giving hope for continued market stability.

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