The Almond Board of California has released its August Position Report for the 2024 crop year, revealing mixed results across key metrics. With receipts surging and shipments lagging behind, market players are watching closely to see how the rest of the harvest season unfolds.

Receipts Surge Amid Record Heat

In August, almond receipts reached 290 million lbs., a staggering 313.65% increase from last year’s 70.13 million lbs. This rapid pace can be attributed to record-high temperatures drying the crop more quickly than usual, allowing almonds to head straight to hulling and shelling facilities without the usual delays. This year’s pace contrasts sharply with 2023, when early rains and a delayed harvest slowed down the process.

Shipments Fall Below Expectations

Total shipments for the month stood at 168.28 million lbs., slightly below the industry’s expectation of 180 million lbs. This figure represents a 20.63% drop compared to last August’s 212.01 million lbs. This decrease was anticipated, given the dwindling inventories of the 2023 crop and the reduced availability of saleable almonds. As receipts increase, California is expected to catch up in the coming months, potentially exceeding last year’s shipment pace by September onward.

• Domestic Shipments: Up 1.03% year-on-year, reaching 62.05 million lbs., in line with the steady demand seen throughout last year.
• Export Shipments: Down 29.46% to 106.23 million lbs. compared to 150.60 million lbs. last year, with most major export markets (excluding Vietnam and India) seeing reduced shipments.

Sales & Commitments: Domestic Market Holds Back

Total sales for the month were down 37.8% from last year, with domestic sales showing a sharp decline of 83% year-on-year. Domestic buyers are holding off on purchases to monitor the progress of the 2024 crop. Export sales, though down 26%, still reached 150.23 million lbs., highlighting the urgency of international markets to plan for future consumption.

Total commitments for the 2024 crop stand at 607.58 million lbs., a slight 2.30% drop compared to last year. Domestic commitments are at their lowest point since August 2015, with only enough almonds secured to meet demand through November. Export commitments, on the other hand, are up 14% year-on-year, as global buyers scramble to replenish their stock levels.

Market Dynamics: Pricing and Inventory

The uncommitted 2024 crop inventory is at 11.08 million lbs., down a significant 68.44% compared to last year’s 35.11 million lbs. This figure is expected to change rapidly as the harvest continues in the coming months.

Price-wise, the almond market has seen notable increases since the July Position Report. However, this price rise isn’t driven by strong early crop reports, but rather concerns over how the 2024 crop is progressing—particularly in the southern part of California’s Central Valley, where yields are reportedly falling short of expectations.

The August Position Report paints a mixed picture for the almond market. While receipts are coming in quickly, shipments, commitments, and sales reveal a more cautious market, especially domestically. As the 2024 crop progresses, uncertainties around final yields and inventory levels will likely keep prices elevated in the short term. With domestic buyers expected to re-enter the market before November, and global export commitments on the rise, it’s clear that the next few months will be critical for both growers and processors.

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