Slow Start, But No Big Price Crash Expected

The market for new Singdana (peanuts are known as singdana in local language of Gujarat, India) has started slowly. Prices have already dropped by USD 0,11 to 0,12 per kg, and traders think they might fall by another USD 0,04 per kg as supply picks up. The drop isn’t huge, but it’s enough to keep farmers and traders watching closely.

In China, the new peanut crop is looking solid. Harvesting has started, and more peanuts are expected to enter the market by the end of September. With a healthy crop in China, buyers may look for cheaper options, which could take some attention away from Indian peanuts.

A Strong Crop Could Push Consumption Higher

In India, the peanut crop in Gujarat is doing well. Experts believe production could hit 4,5 to 5 million tonnes this season. With lower prices on the horizon, consumption might increase, especially since the bumper crop is expected.

Peanut by-products, like blanched peanuts and peanut butter, are in high demand both in India and abroad. If prices stay low, the upcoming season could see a big jump in sales.

Peanut Oil and Export Demand to Steady Prices

Peanut oil exports have been a bright spot. Prices are holding steady at USD 1,58 to 1,60 per kg, with demand from China keeping the market firm. Additionally, the Indian government’s 20% increase in import duty on edible oils has given local crops a needed boost.

As new peanuts arrive, farmers might hold off selling at low prices. Prices could dip by USD 0,03 per kg, but experts don’t foresee a big crash.

What’s Next? Expect Small Fluctuations

In Gujarat, new peanut trading is already in progress. Fresh peanuts with a 60-65 count and 10% moisture are selling for USD 1,20 per kg. Over the past two weeks, older peanut prices have fallen by USD 0,12 per kg, though this decline should level off soon.

Forward trades are also happening, with about 1,000 tonnes scheduled for mid-October delivery. Prices might fluctuate by USD 0,03 per kg, but nothing major is expected for October. However, a bigger drop could happen in November if export demand doesn’t pick up.

Peanut Crop Outlook Looks Bright

Gujarat’s peanut crop is looking promising, with production estimates ranging from 3,8 to 4,2 million tonnes. Despite some weather challenges, the overall outlook remains positive. Markets in Visavadar, Kodinar, Veraval, and Rajkot are already receiving early harvests.

New peanut varieties like Girnar and 32 and 39 numbers are doing well this year, with high yields expected. While moderate rainfall has been helpful, there’s still some worry that unexpected rains could change things.

Right now, peanuts are selling for USD 0,29 to 0,30 per kg, though high winds have slowed trade. These prices are the lowest in 5-7 years, making it a good time for traders. If demand spikes during Navratri, the decline in prices could slow down.

Even Singkhol prices, at USD 0,29 to 0,30 per kg, are the lowest in 20-22 years, a level not seen since 2000-2001. With prices for many commodities down, this year looks promising for traders hoping to cash in on the peanut market.

Conclusion: Peanut Prices Could See Minor Changes, but Demand Holds Promise

As the new peanut crop continues to arrive and market demand shifts, prices are expected to fluctuate slightly. However, with festival season coming and international demand rising, traders might find solid opportunities in the peanut market.

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