Chile's tree nut industry is seeing a strong year ahead, with forecasts for increased production of both walnuts and almonds. The 2024/25 marketing year is expected to bring record harvests, driven by favorable weather conditions. But what does this mean for Chile's position in global markets, and how might it affect prices?

Walnut Production to Jump by 11.4% in 2024/25

Chile is set to produce 195,000 metric tons (MT) of walnuts in the upcoming marketing year, an impressive 11.4% increase compared to 2023/24. This rise is due to a combination of high yields, plentiful rainfall, and ideal growing temperatures. Despite this surge, the area planted with walnuts is only projected to grow by a modest 0.8% to 45,000 hectares, reflecting a trend of slow growth as farmers in Chile's central regions shift to more profitable crops like cherries and citrus fruits.

Export prospects are also looking bright, with walnut exports expected to hit 192,500 MT, a 12.1% year-over-year increase. Key markets for Chilean walnuts include India, Türkiye, and Italy, though Indian demand has recently surpassed Türkiye’s, making it the top destination for Chilean in-shell walnuts.

Almond Production Also on the Rise

Almond production in Chile is also forecasted to grow, though at a slower pace than walnuts. The 2024/25 marketing year is projected to see a 1.8% increase in almond output, reaching 11,500 MT. While this may seem modest, it signals a recovery from last year’s low yields due to unfavorable weather conditions.

The country’s top almond-producing regions, such as O'Higgins and Metropolitana, continue to dominate in terms of output. However, the area planted with almonds has slightly decreased, following a trend of growers opting for more lucrative crops.

Chile’s Role in Global Nut Markets

Chile’s walnut and almond production plays an essential role in global trade. The country is one of the top exporters of walnuts, and with a projected export total of 192,500 MT, it’s clear that Chile’s influence on the global market will continue to grow.

On the almond front, exports are forecasted to reach 7,600 MT, a 4.1% rise compared to last year. While the United States remains the primary supplier of almonds to Chile, the country is increasingly looking to expand its exports, with key markets including Argentina, Russia, and Ecuador.

The growth in Chile's walnut and almond production is promising, but it also reflects larger trends in global agriculture. As farmers diversify into higher-value crops like cherries and citrus, the future of tree nut production may become more competitive. Chile’s ability to increase yields while maintaining its export momentum will be critical in the coming years. For traders and producers, this presents both opportunities and challenges, as global markets adjust to fluctuating supply and demand.

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