Lower Production Drives Garlic Prices Up

Garlic prices in India continue to climb due to falling production, especially in Gujarat. Farmers and traders don’t expect a quick recovery. High seed prices and ongoing water shortages in Saurashtra make it difficult for farmers to plant more garlic. Currently, prices hover between USD 1,80 to 2,40 per kg, with only minor price changes.

Regional Stock Levels Show Pressure on Supply

Garlic stocks remain low across India. However, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan still manage to keep the market supplied for now. Traders expect new garlic from Madhya Pradesh to arrive in late December or early January, marking the start of a three-month harvest season. In Saurashtra, only 25% of the garlic stock remains. To meet growing demand, stockists rely on garlic from Himachal and Kashmir, with most shipments headed to Tamil Nadu and other southern states.

On the dehydrated garlic front, prices continue to rise.

• Traders sell three-to-four-year-old unshattered flakes at USD 1,50 to 1,60 per kg,
• New paper garlic goes for USD 1,92 to 1,98 per kg.
• Shunted garlic prices range from USD 2,16 to 2,28 per kg.

Strong export demand and limited supply could push prices up by another USD 0,12 per kg in the next few months.

Traders Expect Price Fluctuations as Supply Shifts

Garlic trader Manish Savalia reports daily arrivals of 3,000 to 4,000 sacks of garlic in Gauhat, with prices ranging from USD 0,20 to 0,33 per kg. He predicts price swings between USD 0,12 to 0,18 per kg, especially as stockists hold nearly half of the market supply.

In Madhya Pradesh, farmers have already harvested 15-20% of the garlic crop. Despite a limited supply from Rajasthan, demand remains steady. The quality of garlic is good, with 30% of the crop classified as "Achaya" and the rest as "Omat."

Looking ahead, garlic planting could increase by 30-40% this season. However, high prices might slow down trade. Even with a 100% import duty, garlic continues to flow in from China, Iran, and Afghanistan. Traders worry about illegal imports of Chinese garlic, but they feel confident that Indian garlic, known for its stronger flavor, will remain in high demand as the colder months approach.

Steady Growth in Garlic Prices Across Madhya Pradesh

Garlic prices in Madhya Pradesh range between USD 0,25 and 0,41 per kg, following a USD 0,02 per kg drop due to the influx of imported garlic. Prices could rise by USD 0,06 per kg in the coming weeks. The growing demand for garlic seeds helps stabilize prices, though overall demand in central markets remains low.

Madhya Pradesh holds around 2 lakh bags of garlic, but ongoing rains have delayed planting. Farmers have sown only 50,000 bags so far. Despite these challenges, the quality of garlic has improved this season, and traders expect the harvest to triple in the coming months. However, new garlic may not arrive in markets until January 10, and prices are expected to remain strong until then.

Conclusion: Garlic Prices Likely to Stay Strong Amid Tight Supplies

With garlic stocks dwindling and export demand rising, prices are expected to stay firm. Traders should prepare for price fluctuations as the market continues adjusting to tight supplies.

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