As California experiences unusually high temperatures during the fall, the almond harvest is moving at an accelerated pace. While the crop is expected to surpass last year’s yield, recent conditions have raised questions about the overall quality and size of the harvest. Here’s a breakdown of the latest almond market trends, shipment data, and future expectations.

Heat Speeds Up Almond Harvest

California’s triple-digit temperatures have dried out the almonds quickly, resulting in a faster-than-usual harvest. Over 290 million pounds of almonds have already been received, a 313% increase compared to the same time last year. However, this significant jump is more about timing than crop size. Last year’s harvest was delayed, whereas this year’s almonds are arriving on time. Despite the larger expected yield, the extreme heat could reduce overall tonnage, with moisture levels in the almonds reported to be 1-2% below normal.

Shipment Slowdown Amid Low Carryover Stock

While the harvest is progressing quickly, shipments for the first month of the new crop year totaled 168.28 million pounds, a 20.63% drop compared to last year’s 212.01 million pounds. The slowdown is likely due to limited carryover stock from the previous crop, which had a high level of unsaleable inventory. However, expectations for September shipments are optimistic, as new crop exports are expected to ramp up, leading to a stronger performance in the fourth quarter.

Domestic and Export Sales

Domestic almond shipments saw a modest 1% increase in August, reaching 62.05 million pounds, continuing the steady growth seen in previous years. On the export side, shipments dropped by 29.5%, with only 106.23 million pounds shipped compared to 150.60 million pounds last year. This decline is largely attributed to the lack of quality almonds from the previous crop available for export during the transition period.

New Crop Sales and Commitments

Total new crop sales in August reached 159.35 million pounds, down 37.8% from last year’s 256 million pounds. This slowdown can be traced to the crop’s appearance being worse than expected, causing some buyers to hold back on purchases. Industry commitments are also down 2.3%, standing at 607.6 million pounds compared to 621.9 million pounds last year, as domestic buyers hesitate to commit to rising almond prices. However, export commitments are up 14%, with international markets securing inventory ahead of the holiday season.

Market Trends – What to Expect Next

While it’s still too early to predict the final yield, there is growing uncertainty about whether the crop will meet the objective estimate of 2.80 billion pounds. With discrepancies in yields across different regions, many growers are delaying sales past December until they have a clearer picture of the crop’s potential. Upcoming industry milestones, including the October 11 position report, will provide further insight into how the market is shaping up for the remainder of the year.

Industry Milestones to Watch

• October 11, 2024: Next Almond Position Report
• December 10-12, 2024: Almond Conference (almonds.com)

Bullish Trends

• New crop sales are strong enough to keep production lines busy through October, with shipments likely pushed to November.
• The overall crop may fall short of the 2.80 billion pound estimate, justifying current market prices.
• Almonds remain competitively priced compared to other tree nuts like cashews and pistachios.

Bearish Trends

• The August position report showed shipments below expectations, putting the industry behind compared to last year.
• Even with a smaller carry-in, the total almond supply could still surpass last year’s if the crop reaches 2.80 billion pounds.
• Potential port strikes on the East Coast could disrupt exports, affecting global shipments.

As the almond harvest continues at a faster pace due to high temperatures, the industry is facing both opportunities and challenges. While new crop shipments are expected to strengthen in the coming months, there is uncertainty about the overall size and quality of this year’s yield. With both bullish and bearish trends in play, the almond market is one to watch closely as we move through the final quarter of the year.

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