California’s almond harvest is moving at a rapid pace due to extreme heat, pushing production ahead of schedule. However, despite early signs of a strong crop, the industry is grappling with lower exports and supply challenges. Here’s an update on the global almond market and what to expect as the season progresses.

Heat Accelerates Harvest, But Quality Concerns Loom

California’s triple-digit temperatures have sped up the almond harvest, with over 290 million pounds already received—an impressive 313% increase over the same period last year. The heat has dried the crop quickly, leading to earlier-than-usual harvests. However, the high temperatures may come at a cost, with almond moisture levels 1-2% below normal, potentially affecting the overall tonnage.

Mixed Results for Almond Shipments

While the harvest is progressing quickly, almond shipments tell a different story. In August, domestic shipments rose by a modest 1%, reaching 62.05 million pounds. However, export shipments dropped significantly, down 29.5% from last year, reflecting the industry’s limited carryout supply. With only 500 million pounds in carryout compared to 800 million pounds last year, the supply gap has left the industry scrambling to meet export demand.

Early Sales Strong, But Commitments Lag

New crop sales for the first two months of the season have been robust, with 159 million pounds sold in August. However, this marks a 38% drop from the same period last year. Industry commitments are currently down 2.3%, with domestic buyers holding back due to rising almond prices. Export commitments, on the other hand, are up 14%, as international markets rush to secure inventories ahead of the holiday season.

Uncertainty Over Final Crop Size

While the early harvest shows promise, the total almond crop size remains uncertain. Reports from different regions show inconsistent yields, leaving many growers hesitant to push sales beyond December until a clearer picture of the crop emerges. The industry is still aiming for the objective estimate of 2.80 billion pounds, but whether this target will be reached is up for debate.

Potential Challenges on the Horizon

The August position report highlighted shipments below expectations, putting the almond industry at a disadvantage compared to last year. Even with a smaller carryout, the overall production this year is expected to exceed last year’s supply, raising concerns about oversupply. Additionally, a potential port strike on the East Coast in October could disrupt global exports, creating further uncertainty for international shipments.

Bullish Trends

• Strong new crop sales have filled production lines through October.
• The total crop may fall short of the 2.80 billion pound estimate, which could support current market prices.
• Almonds remain competitively priced compared to other tree nuts like cashews and pistachios.

Bearish Trends

• The August position report showed weaker-than-expected shipments, putting pressure on the industry to recover.
• Despite a smaller carryout, total production will likely surpass last year’s supply, which could lead to oversupply concerns.
• The looming East Coast port strike could cause disruptions in export logistics, impacting global markets.

California’s almond harvest is moving quickly, but the global market is facing challenges. With mixed shipment data and uncertainty over the final crop size, the industry is watching closely to see how the remainder of the year unfolds. While strong domestic demand and early sales are positive signs, the potential for export disruptions and a larger-than-expected supply could present hurdles for the months ahead.





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