The global cashew market has experienced stable prices throughout the past month, though recent shifts in sentiment among processors suggest potential price fluctuations in the coming months. With a decrease in in-shell imports to Vietnam and concerns over supply coverage, the cashew industry may see increased volatility as we move into a seasonally strong demand period.

Shifting Sentiment in the Cashew Market

While cashew prices have remained stable, there has been a slight downward trend over the last month. However, towards the end of the period, many cashew processors realized they do not have sufficient in-shell supplies to cover their processing needs for the rest of the year. This has caused a shift in sentiment among shippers, with a potential for higher prices ahead as demand continues to grow.

September is expected to see fewer in-shell imports into Vietnam, reducing the need for cash and potentially pausing distress sales—where kernels are sold to raise cash to clear in-shell shipments. Processors may begin working towards higher sales price levels for kernels, especially if demand remains strong.

Bullish Trends

• The global market is entering a seasonally strong period for cashew demand and consumption.
• Kernels are currently priced lower than in-shells, and prices may need to rise to ensure processor margins are maintained.
• Lower availability of in-shells, as Northern Hemisphere crops are nearly fully traded, may drive prices higher.
• Southern Hemisphere crops may not meet demand at current levels, further tightening supply.
• Defaults could reoccur, leading to greater volatility in both kernel and in-shell prices.

Bearish Trends

• Rising prices could negatively impact consumption as higher costs discourage buyers.
• If Tanzania's crop yields better results than anticipated, a rush to sell Tanzanian in-shells before the end of 2024 could flood the market and stabilize or lower prices.
• Early Northern Hemisphere crops may influence buyer behavior, potentially tempering the upward price pressure.

The cashew market is entering a period of uncertainty. While prices have been relatively stable, a combination of strong demand, limited supply, and changing market dynamics could lead to higher volatility in the coming months. Processors and traders will need to keep a close eye on supply trends and consumer behavior as the market adjusts to these evolving conditions.





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