California's unseasonably hot temperatures, more reminiscent of summer than October, are impacting the almond harvest. With triple-digit heat continuing into the first week of October, farmers are forced to speed up the harvest process to protect the almonds still in the orchards, especially those already on the ground. As concerns grow over crop quality, the almond market is showing mixed signals, with some varieties firming up while overall sales remain sluggish. Here’s the latest on the market dynamics and what to expect in the coming months.

Heatwave Forces Faster Harvest

California’s extreme heat is breaking daily records, and almond growers are feeling the pressure. The harvest, which must be accelerated to prevent damage to the crop, especially for almonds drying on the orchard floor, has many worried about the overall quality of the yield. The impact of this heat is particularly concerning for pollinators and standards, with market uncertainty driving firmer prices. Meanwhile, Nonpareil and Independence varieties are trading steadily despite the challenging conditions.

Shipments and Market Trends

August saw a notable drop in almond shipments, with 168.28 million pounds shipped—a 20.63% decline compared to last year's 212.01 million pounds. However, industry expectations for September are more optimistic, with projections of around 240 million pounds. The new crop of Nonpareil and Independence almonds, which have been shipping for several weeks, should help boost numbers in the coming months.

Domestic shipments continue to show resilience, growing by 1% year-over-year with 62 million pounds shipped in August. However, export shipments lagged, down 29.5% to 106.23 million pounds compared to 150.60 million pounds a year ago. This decline may be a result of timing, with the potential for recovery in future months.

Sales Slow as Growers Wait for More Data

Total new sales for August were down 37.8%, totaling 159.35 million pounds compared to last year's 256.09 million pounds. Growers are hesitant to commit to further sales until they have more clarity on the overall crop size. Many are estimating that this year’s harvest will fall short of the 2.80 billion-pound projection.

After about 10 weeks of harvesting, the process has moved on to pollinator varieties like Carmel, Monterey, and Mission. However, these varieties don’t appear to be compensating for the earlier harvest of Nonpareils, reinforcing doubts that the crop will meet its forecasted size.

Inshell Market Under Pressure

One key market condition to watch is the inshell market, particularly important for shipments to India and China. Historically, inshell almonds are sold at a premium, but this year prices haven’t risen enough to make it worthwhile for many growers. Instead, they are opting to shell their supply, which will likely reduce the availability of inshell almonds in the market, putting upward pressure on prices in the coming months.

Bullish Trends

• Almonds remain a strong value compared to other tree nuts, with consumer demand for almond-containing products continuing to rise.
• The heatwave may reduce the overall crop size, supporting current price levels. If September shipments are as strong as expected, market prices may firm further.

 Bearish Trends

• Higher prices could dampen demand, especially since much of the current crop was sold at lower price levels.
• Even with a smaller carry-in, this year’s crop could still exceed last year’s production, which may put downward pressure on prices.
• The recent three-day port strike has caused significant disruptions to supply chains, adding to shipping delays and increasing logistics costs.

As California's almond growers navigate the challenges of extreme heat and a fast-tracked harvest, the market is bracing for continued volatility. With concerns over crop quality and supply chain disruptions, traders and buyers will be watching closely for September’s shipment figures and the eventual size of the 2024 crop.





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