The past week saw a significant rise in global oil prices, driven by escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. This spike had a ripple effect on vegetable oil markets, particularly palm oil, rapeseed, and canola. Here's an overview of how these developments have impacted the market, with a focus on rising futures prices and harvest progress in key producing regions.

Rise in Oil and Palm Oil Prices

Crude oil prices jumped by 9.1% this week, leading to notable increases in the prices of vegetable oils. Palm oil futures on the Bursa exchange in Malaysia surged by 6.1%, with similar price movements seen in rapeseed and canola markets.

• November rapeseed futures on Paris MATIF climbed 1.2% on Friday to €486.75/t ($534/t), marking a 3.7% rise for the week and month.
• February rapeseed futures also showed gains, rising to €493/t (+3% for the week and +4.4% for the month). These increases were supported by a weakening euro, which dropped from 1.12 to 1.097 against the dollar.

Canola Prices Climb Despite Reduced Exports

In response to rising oil and palm oil prices, November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose by 3.5% for the week, reaching CAD 625/t (Euro 417/t), a 6.8% monthly gain. This increase comes despite a sharp reduction in Canadian canola exports.

• In the period between September 22-30, canola exports from Canada dropped from 228.6 thousand tons to 87 thousand tons. However, total exports for the season (since August 1) have reached 1.757 million tons, tripling last year’s pace.
• Dry and warm weather in the Canadian prairies has helped facilitate the completion of the canola harvest with minimal damage. As of September 30, the canola harvest progress stood at 82% in Saskatchewan, 71% in Alberta, and 78% in Manitoba.

Ukrainian Rapeseed Prices and Export Trends

In Ukraine, export purchase prices for rapeseed rose by UAH 200-300/t over the past week, reaching UAH 23,400-23,600/t (€518-522/t). This rise comes against a backdrop of reduced supply from producers, while demand for rapeseed remains strong, especially in the Black Sea ports.

• According to data from the Ukroliyaprom association, Ukraine has exported 1.8 million tons of rapeseed as of October 1 in the 2024/25 marketing year, 13.4% higher than the previous year’s pace.
• By the end of the season, another 1 million tons of rapeseed could be exported, though domestic processing is expected to decrease to 250,000-300,000 tons in the current season.

Rapeseed Oil Export Declines

While rapeseed oil exports from Ukraine reached 424,000 tons in FY 2023/24, marking a staggering 404% increase from the previous fiscal year, September 2024 saw a sharp decline. Only 39.2 thousand tons of rapeseed oil were exported in September, a 63% drop compared to the same month in 2023.

Global vegetable oil markets are feeling the effects of geopolitical tensions and shifting supply dynamics. As prices for palm oil, rapeseed, and canola continue to rise, traders and buyers will need to monitor market conditions closely, particularly as new harvests come in and export trends adjust.





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