Russia's Agriculture Ministry is set to revise its grain harvest forecast due to challenging weather conditions in Siberia and ongoing security issues in regions under the counter-terrorism operation (CTO) regime. Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut revealed these updates during the Bioprom 24 forum, highlighting concerns over the potential impact on the country's total grain yield for 2024.

Impact of Weather and Security on Harvest

The combination of severe weather conditions in Siberia and the difficulties in harvesting in regions like Bryansk, Belgorod, and Kursk, due to the ongoing CTO measures, has led to a necessary adjustment in the projected harvest figures. In these areas, farmers are facing challenges that could significantly reduce their overall yield, making it impossible to complete harvesting on key farmlands.

Projected Decline in Grain Harvest

As a result of these issues, the total grain harvest for Russia by the end of 2024 may fall below initial expectations. Minister Lut explained that the Ministry is currently recalculating figures based on the weather in Siberia and the restrictions in place in certain regions. The revised forecast is expected to reflect a drop in grain output due to these combined factors.

Specific Regional Challenges

In the Kursk region, it has already been reported that 160,000 hectares of farmland may remain unharvested. This is expected to lead to a reduction of 1.5 million tons in the gross grain harvest and a 500,000-ton shortfall in the oilseed crop.

Previous Harvest Estimates

Up until now, the Agriculture Ministry’s estimate for Russia’s total grain harvest in 2024 stood at 132 million tons, a figure that has remained consistent throughout the year. However, recent developments have prompted the Ministry to collect final harvest forecasts from the regions to update its estimates.

The revision of Russia's grain harvest forecast underscores the unpredictable nature of agricultural production, particularly when external factors such as extreme weather and security concerns come into play. The Ministry’s updated estimates, expected soon, will shed more light on the full impact of these challenges on the country’s agricultural output for 2024.





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