Brazil’s sugarcane industry is under severe pressure due to a record number of wildfires and extreme weather events that have taken a toll on the country's sugar production. As the world’s largest sugar producer, Brazil’s output in the 2024/25 marketing year is being closely watched by global markets. Despite the significant impact of these challenges, Brazil remains a key player in the global sugar trade, though the future looks uncertain.

Wildfires: A Growing Threat

2024 has seen an alarming rise in wildfires across Brazil, with over 110,000 fire outbreaks reported in September alone. These fires have severely impacted large areas of agricultural land, including sugarcane fields, particularly in São Paulo and other central states. The Union of Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry (UNICA) estimates that 230,000 hectares of sugarcane fields have been affected, translating into significant financial losses and operational challenges for sugar producers.

The Impact on Sugar Production

Despite the devastating wildfires, Brazil’s total sugar production for the 2024/25 season is projected at 43 million metric tons, slightly down from earlier forecasts of 44 million tons. This reduction is primarily due to poor sugarcane quality resulting from fire damage and ongoing drought conditions in key producing regions. While some of the burned sugarcane can still be processed for sugar or ethanol, the overall output has been affected by lower recoverable sugar concentrations in the damaged crops.

Climate Conditions Worsen the Situation

The extreme weather patterns seen in 2024, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, have intensified the crisis. The country experienced prolonged droughts and severe heatwaves, particularly affecting the Center-South region, Brazil’s primary sugarcane-growing area. Analysts warn that the ongoing dry conditions may lead to further losses in sugarcane yields, putting additional strain on the 2025/26 harvest.

How Brazil's Sugar Exports are Holding Up

Despite these challenges, Brazil’s sugar exports remain resilient. The country has already exported 15.7 million metric tons of sugar from April to August 2024, marking a 17% increase from the same period last year. Major importers include China, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates. However, the reduced domestic supply could limit export capacity if sugar production continues to decline.

A Shifting Focus to Ethanol

While sugar remains a key export product, Brazil's sugar mills are also ramping up ethanol production, especially given the lower sugar yields this season. Ethanol has traditionally provided a buffer for the industry during tough years, as demand for biofuels remains strong both domestically and internationally.

What Lies Ahead for the 2025 Harvest?

The future of Brazil’s sugar industry heavily depends on the weather in the coming months. The sugarcane crop, weakened by fires and water stress, will require favorable rains starting in October to support regrowth for the next harvest. Experts warn that prolonged drought could severely limit productivity in 2025, forcing producers to replant large areas of damaged crops, which will require additional investments in fertilizers and pesticides.

Brazil’s sugarcane industry is navigating an increasingly complex landscape of environmental and economic challenges. While sugar production has shown resilience in the face of wildfires and climate stress, the industry’s future hinges on more favorable weather conditions and the ability to adapt to these rapidly changing circumstances. The coming year will be pivotal for Brazil’s role in the global sugar market.





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