Increasing Groundnut Arrivals Post-Dussehra

• The groundnut market in Banaskantha, India, is witnessing a gradual increase in arrivals.
  • Today, 20,000 bags arrived in Disa.
  • District-wide estimates: 50,000 to 60,000 bags.
• Peak season (post-Dussehra) is expected to bring:
  • Daily arrivals of 1.50 lakh bags.
  • Projected arrivals:
    • Disa: 50,000 bags.
    • Pachavada: 25,000 bags.
    • Palanpur: 10,000 bags.
• Total groundnut crop in Banaskantha this year:
  • Estimated: 4 to 4.25 lakh tonnes (up from last year’s 3.50 lakh tonnes).
• Gujarat’s state-wide groundnut production:
  • Projected: 45 to 50 lakh tonnes.

Price Trends for the New Groundnut Crop of Gujarat

• The new groundnut crop's price is hovering around USD 1,45 to 1,51 per kg, while weaker stock is being sold at USD 1,32 to 1,45 per kg.
• However, as more groundnuts flood the market, prices are expected to drop by USD 0,12 to 0,18 per kg.
• A further reduction of USD 0,12 is anticipated around Diwali if demand remains weak.
• For the 50-60 count, the price of groundnuts stands at USD 1,13 to 1,14 per kg, while for the 80-90 count, it's around USD 1,09 per kg.
• Prices may fall by USD 0,04 per kg after peak harvest, though a larger reduction seems unlikely.

The government's procurement efforts at the minimum support price will help stabilize the market. The government plans to purchase around 10 lakh tonnes from Gujarat, which accounts for 20% of the state's total crop. Groundnut crops in Gujarat are showing promising growth, even if the region receives minimal rainfall. The overall outlook remains positive, with an expected crop yield of 40 to 42 lakh tonnes this year.

Record Groundnut Harvest Expected Across India

Apart from Gujarat, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are also expected to produce strong groundnut yields. Rajasthan’s production is estimated at 20 to 22 lakh tonnes, while Uttar Pradesh is expected to harvest 20 lakh tonnes. Across India, groundnut production could surpass 80 lakh tonnes, setting a new record. This marks a significant increase compared to last year’s nationwide production of 65 lakh tonnes.

Potential Price Drops in Groundnut by Year-End

• The arrival of large quantities of groundnuts from Uttar Pradesh may lead to price declines of USD 0,48 to 0,60 per quintal.
• Groundnuts with moisture content of 15% to 20% are being priced between USD 0,54 to 0,60 per kg.
• Prices for Singdana groundnuts have fallen to USD 0,60 to 0,61 per kg, and further price drops may occur if supply continues to rise.

If market conditions stabilize with government support, groundnut prices could regain strength. Still, any deterioration in quality might drive prices down to USD 0,54 to 0,60 per kg.

Conclusion: When to Buy?

With production strong and prices expected to dip slightly, now is a favorable time for traders to consider purchasing groundnuts. Prices may fall further around Diwali, but with government support and the upcoming procurement initiatives, market recovery is anticipated. Stockists might consider holding off on significant sales until post-Diwali, when the market is expected to stabilize.





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