Vietnam’s Pepper Prices Keep Climbing, But How Long Will It Last?

Pepper prices in Vietnam are steadily rising this week, with the average price reaching USD 4,75 per kg. In Đắk Nông, Đắk Lắk, and Bình Phước provinces, prices peaked at USD 4,76 per kg. Although still below the historic high of USD 5,59 per kg set in June, prices have surged by nearly 80% since the start of the year and are double compared to last year. But we are unsure about how long this trend will last.

Global Demand Pushes Vietnamese Pepper to New Heights

• Vietnamese black pepper continues to command a strong presence in the global market. The latest data from the International Pepper Community (IPC) reveals that 500 g/l black pepper is priced at USD 6,10 per kg,
• 550 g/l black pepper is at USD 6,50 per kg.
• White pepper commands an even higher price, reaching USD 8,80 per kg.

Honestly, no one expected the prices to reach these levels so quickly.

• Vietnam’s average pepper export price for the past eight months stands at USD 4,81 per kg, a significant increase of 47% compared to last year.
• Export prices jumped from USD 4,00 per kg in January to USD 5,95 per kg by August.
• So far this year, Vietnamese exporters have earned USD 891 million from selling 185,000 tonnes of black pepper. Many in the industry were caught by surprise with this surge.

U.S., Germany, and UAE Drive Pepper Exports from Vietnam

The United States remains Vietnam’s top buyer, spending USD 205,3 million to import nearly 43,170 tonnes of pepper. Compared to last year, U.S. imports of Vietnamese pepper rose by 47.5% in volume and 74.9% in value.

Germany and the UAE have also ramped up imports, investing heavily in Vietnamese pepper. Germany’s import volume doubled, generating over USD 57 million in export revenue. Pepper exports to the UAE increased by 40.2% in volume and 113.9% in value. Some traders wonder if these markets can continue absorbing such large volumes.

Reduced Harvests and Supply Issues Keep Prices on the Rise

Reduced harvests in both Vietnam and Brazil have driven global pepper prices higher, according to Hoàng Thị Liên, Chairwoman of the Vietnam Pepper and Spices Association (VPSA). These two countries dominate the global pepper market, but their exports have dropped by 6.8% and 6%, respectively. Meanwhile, increased supplies from Indonesia and India haven't been enough to offset this shortfall. A few skeptics still think prices might stabilize unexpectedly, but it seems unlikely.

Vietnam’s pepper stock levels remain low, which means exports will likely remain below normal until early 2025. The next harvest season is expected to begin in March 2025, keeping prices high in the global market until then.

Conclusion: Should Traders Buy Pepper Now or Wait for a Price Drop?

With limited supply and rising prices, traders may want to consider buying now before prices climb even higher. The global shortage, paired with Vietnam’s low stock levels, suggests that pepper prices will continue to rise until the next harvest in March 2025. Buyers should monitor the market closely and make strategic purchases during this period. A few cautious traders, however, might still wait for a price dip, but this could be risky.





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