India Faces Lower Crop and Delayed Arrivals

The Indian sesame market is grappling with lower-than-expected crop sizes this year. Last year, the Kharif sesame crop across Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh was estimated between 145,000 to 150,000 MT. However, this year, projections suggest a smaller harvest of 130,000 to 140,000 MT. While new sesame arrivals have begun in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan are seeing delayed harvests, expected to pick up around Diwali.

Last week saw sesame arrivals begin in areas like Mahoba, Urai, and Rahat in Madhya Pradesh, sparking optimism. However, persistent quality issues due to unpredictable weather remain a concern for producers and traders alike.

China Awaits Post-Holiday Boost in Demand

In China, market activity slowed down this week because of National Day holidays. Qingdao Port saw fewer transactions during this period, but demand is expected to increase post-holiday, as inventories will need replenishment. Domestic supply in China is likely to rise, which could potentially put downward pressure on sesame prices.

Previously, strong stock levels at Qingdao Port had caused concern over possible supply disruptions. Looking ahead, while demand is expected to grow, price trends will depend on how domestic supply balances out the growing demand.

Nigeria’s Harvest in Full Swing

Nigeria is making significant strides in its sesame harvest, already producing 50,000 MT of the expected 350,000 MT crop this year. Major importers of Nigerian sesame include countries like Japan, India, Türkiye, South Korea, and the European Union. Nigeria’s large harvest is expected to play a vital role in stabilizing global sesame markets, especially given the current supply issues in other regions.

Compared to last week, when Nigeria was just starting its harvest, the latest update shows that the country is on track to meet or exceed its production estimates. The bumper crop is a positive signal for global markets.

Pakistan Nears Completion of Harvest

Pakistan has nearly completed 85-90% of its sesame harvest, with around 100,000 MT already traded in local and international markets. The total crop size is anticipated to be slightly lower than initial estimates, now ranging between 300,000 and 320,000 MT. This is a slight adjustment from last week’s report, where 80% of the harvest had been completed.

Conclusion: Market Volatility Expected Despite Strong Harvests

India’s reduced crop size and delayed harvests may limit supply, while China’s post-holiday demand offers some relief. Nigeria’s robust harvest and Pakistan’s near-complete crop are encouraging signs, but the overall market remains volatile. Traders should monitor the situation closely and consider locking in prices before the holiday season to mitigate risks.





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