In its October supply and demand report, the USDA made significant revisions to its global oilseed production forecasts for the 2024/25 marketing year. While sunflower production saw a slight increase, forecasts for soybeans and rapeseed were adjusted down due to lower yields and reduced acreage in key regions. How will these changes impact global markets?

Soybean Production and Exports Face Downgrades

According to the USDA, global soybean production is now forecasted at 428.92 million tons for 2024/25, down by 0.28 million tons compared to September estimates. Key contributors to the reduction include lower production in Ukraine and the U.S. The U.S. estimate was decreased by 0.1 million tons, with expected production now at 124.7 million tons.

• Ukraine: The forecast was reduced by 0.2 million tons, bringing it to 6.6 million tons due to lower yields and a smaller planting area.
• Global Consumption: Consumption is expected to reach 402.72 million tons, slightly down by 0.26 million tons.

Despite these cuts, production in Brazil and Argentina remains unchanged at 169 million tons and 51 million tons, respectively, far surpassing last season’s figures.

Soybean Prices Under Pressure from Brazilian Weather Forecasts

Following the USDA report, November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell by 1%, closing at $369.3 per ton. The slight drop comes as traders react to forecasts of rainfall in Brazil’s central regions, which is expected to increase pressure on prices in the short term.

Rapeseed Production Slumps in the EU and Ukraine

The global rapeseed production forecast for 2024/25 was lowered by 0.12 million tons to 87.44 million tons. Significant downgrades were made for the European Union, where production is expected to fall to 17.45 million tons, and for Ukraine, which is now forecast to produce only 3.6 million tons—well below previous estimates.

• China: Rapeseed production forecasts for China, however, were revised upwards by 0.2 million tons, bringing the total to 15.8 million tons.
• Global Exports: Despite these reductions, global rapeseed exports are set to increase slightly, with Canada’s export forecast rising to 7.35 million tons.

Sunflower Production Gets a Small Boost

Sunflower production forecasts for 2024/25 saw a modest increase of 0.2 million tons, bringing global production to 50.7 million tons. Argentina contributed to this growth with a forecasted increase in acreage, boosting their expected harvest to 4 million tons. Meanwhile, estimates for Ukraine and Russia remain unchanged, at 12.5 million and 16 million tons, respectively.

• Global Consumption: Sunflower consumption is expected to rise to 51.3 million tons, primarily driven by increased processing in the EU and Argentina.

Canola and Sunflower Markets Eye Canada and Australia

As harvests wrap up in Canada and Australia, the global rapeseed and sunflower markets are expected to remain volatile. Recent increases in Canadian canola futures (+9.7% for the month) reflect tight supply conditions. November canola futures on the Paris MATIF also rose by 0.6%, closing at €499.25/t, showing a 7% increase for the month.

What’s Next for the Global Oilseed Market?

Looking ahead, global oilseed markets will continue to react to weather conditions and production reports from major regions like Brazil and Argentina. The acceleration of soybean planting in Brazil is expected to contribute to a decline in soybean prices, while the outcomes of sunflower and rapeseed harvests in Ukraine, Russia, Canada, and Australia will likely shape market movements in the coming months.





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