The Almond Board of California has released its September Position Report, the first for the 2024 crop year, with positive news across several key metrics. While shipments were slightly below industry expectations, receipts and sales showed strong performance, setting a solid foundation for the year ahead.

Record Almond Receipts as Harvest Progresses Rapidly

In September, almond receipts surged to 744.94 million lbs., marking a 34.2% increase compared to last year’s 555.27 million lbs. The total for the crop year now stands at 1.035 billion lbs., up a remarkable 65.5% from last year’s 625.40 million lbs.

The expedited harvest has benefited from favorable weather, with early-season heat aiding the hulling and shelling process. This accelerated pace has allowed handlers to bring in product quickly, especially with low carry-in stocks from previous years. The industry consensus points toward an overall crop size of between 2.65 and 2.8 billion lbs.

Shipments: Slight Dip but Set for a Strong October

September shipments reached 213.56 million lbs., falling short of the industry’s expectations of 240 million lbs. However, this figure represents only a 1.89% drop from last September’s 217.67 million lbs. The lower number is attributed to the timing of pollinator varieties, which were just being harvested and unavailable for shipment during the period.

• Domestic shipments were 55.94 million lbs., down 11% from last year’s 62.84 million lbs. This dip is expected to be temporary, with domestic buyers likely to increase purchasing once pollinator varieties become available in October.
• Export shipments saw a modest increase, rising 1.8% to 157.62 million lbs., compared to 154.82 million lbs. last year. Notably, NP markets in the Middle East surged by 110% month-on-month, driven by strong demand and product availability.

Sales and Commitments Show Solid Support for New Pricing

Sales for September totaled 273.38 million lbs., a 1.3% increase over last year’s 269.89 million lbs. Domestic sales saw a notable boost, up 17% to 83.28 million lbs., while export sales dipped slightly by 4% to 190.10 million lbs. The domestic market, which had been historically uncovered, has started to pick up buying activity, while export markets are securing stocks to cover dwindling inventories.

As for commitments, the 2024 crop year now stands at 667.39 million lbs., a slight 1% decrease compared to last year. Despite this, both domestic and export markets are well-covered for the next three months, ensuring a steady demand flow.

Uncommitted Inventory Grows as Harvest Continues

Uncommitted inventory for the 2024 crop year has risen by 51.19%, reaching 467.75 million lbs. as of September. This figure will continue to climb as the harvest progresses, adding further volume to the supply chain.

In a Nutshell: Positive Outlook Despite Shipment Dip

While September shipments missed expectations slightly, the overall report paints a positive picture for California’s almond industry. Strong receipts, solid sales, and commitments reflect robust market support for the new pricing levels set since July.

The stable pricing, which has now held firm since September, indicates that both buyers and sellers are reaching agreements on new business. Although it’s unlikely we’ll see significant price increases in the near term, due to strong receipts, buyers may attempt to negotiate lower prices. However, California producers are expected to hold firm as the crop size becomes clearer by December.

Looking ahead, the October Position Report is expected to show another strong shipment month, especially as pollinator varieties begin to hit the market. As more data becomes available, the industry will gain a better understanding of the final crop size, which will help steer pricing trends for the remainder of the season.





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