Wheat prices in Ukraine have seen a sharp rise as active exports and limited supply push purchase prices higher, even as global quotations show signs of softening. With increasing demand from importers and favorable weather conditions for winter wheat sowing, the Ukrainian wheat market remains robust.

Export Demand Pushes Wheat Prices Higher

Over the past week, export purchase prices for Ukrainian wheat rose by an additional €4-5 per ton. Food wheat is now priced at €193-198 per ton (UAH 9,700-10,000), while feed wheat is fetching €184-189per ton (UAH 9,400-9,550), both with delivery to Black Sea ports. This increase is driven by ongoing strong export activity, with Ukrainian wheat in high demand.

Ukraine’s Wheat Exports Continue to Soar

In the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine has already exported 6.9 million tons of wheat, a significant increase compared to 3.9 million tons in the same period last year. In October alone, exports reached 796,000 tons—34% higher than in October 2023. This active export environment is helping to support rising purchase prices, despite the dip in global quotations.

Winter Wheat Sowing Progress Accelerates

Thanks to improved precipitation levels, Ukraine’s winter wheat sowing has accelerated. As of October 14, approximately 3.7 million hectares—72% of the planned 5.18 million hectares—had been sown with winter wheat. This boost in planting progress bodes well for the upcoming season.

Russian and Ukrainian Wheat Prices Rise

In response to active demand from importers, prices for Russian and Ukrainian wheat have risen to €211-216 per ton FOB. This increase is providing additional support for purchase prices in Ukraine, keeping them at elevated levels despite global market fluctuations.

Meanwhile, in Russia, wheat harvests are nearing completion, with 85.8 million tons threshed from 97% of the total area (including occupied territories) as of October 14.

Global Wheat Prices Experience Decline

While Ukrainian and Russian wheat prices are on the rise, wheat prices in the U.S. and South America are seeing declines due to improving weather conditions. Persistent rains over the past two weeks have boosted crop conditions, pushing wheat prices down by 1.3-2.8% on U.S. exchanges, erasing the gains made in the previous week.

In the European Union, however, wheat prices remain high, holding steady at €230 per ton.

Futures Market Sees Mixed Movements

Yesterday, December wheat futures experienced the following changes:

• Soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago fell by 2.4% to $215 per ton (-1.3% for the week).
• Hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City dropped by 2.5% to $216.8 per ton (-2.2%).
• Hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis decreased by 2.8% to $230.2 per ton (-2.8%).
• Wheat on Paris Euronext remained stable, slipping by just 0.1% to €228.75 per ton ($249.4).

Egypt Caps Wheat Purchases, Limiting Price Growth

In a move that could curb the rise in Black Sea wheat prices, Egypt has capped future wheat purchases at $240 per ton. This decision follows Egypt’s purchase of 3.2 million tons of Russian wheat outside of a tender. With sufficient strategic wheat stock for 5.2 months, Egypt is unlikely to make new purchases despite rising global prices.

In the first nine months of 2024, Egypt’s wheat imports surged by 30%, reaching 10.8 million tons compared to 8.3 million tons during the same period in 2023.





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