Ukraine’s corn market is seeing growing demand from both the EU and Türkiye, pushing exporters and processors to raise purchase prices. Despite a global dip in stock prices due to favorable weather in South America, corn prices in Ukraine remain unaffected as supply constraints persist.

Strong Export Demand Drives Price Increases

Corn export demand in Ukraine continues to rise, particularly from Türkiye, adding pressure on exporters and processors to raise purchase prices. Limited supply from farmers, coupled with increasing feed wheat prices, has only amplified this trend. Over the past week, export prices in Black Sea ports rose by €2-3 per ton, now reaching €185-188 per ton, while processors raised their prices by UAH 100-200 per ton, now ranging from UAH 8,600-9,000 per ton for factory deliveries.

Corn Harvest Progress and Export Performance

• As of October 10, Ukraine had harvested 10.565 million tons of corn from 1.96 million hectares, or 48% of the planned area, with an average yield of 5.38 tons per hectare.
• The total corn harvest for 2024/25 is projected to be between 24-26 million tons, potentially limiting export prospects.
• Despite the challenges, Ukraine exported 3.3 million tons of corn in the 2024/25 marketing year, a notable increase from 3 million tons during the same period last year.
• From October 1-14 alone, exports reached 538,000 tons, 75% higher than the same period in 2023.

Global Corn Market Sees Mixed Trends

On the global front, December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell by 5% for the week, settling at $158 per ton due to falling oil prices and favorable planting conditions in Brazil. However, futures are still up by 2.5% for the month.

In the U.S., corn harvesting has been completed on 47% of the area as of October 13, ahead of the five-year average. Meanwhile, corn exports from the U.S. dropped by 55% for the week, reaching 430.3 thousand tons, although overall exports for the season are 19% ahead of last year’s pace.

Brazil’s Corn Prospects Remain Strong

Brazil’s corn outlook remains positive, with 45.8% of the first crop area planted as of October 11. Soybean sowing is progressing rapidly, boosting the prospects for second-crop corn planting. Conab estimates that Brazil will harvest 119.74 million tons of corn in 2024/25, an increase of 4.04 million tons compared to the previous season. Brazil exported 2.5 million tons of corn from October 1-14, further strengthening its role in the global market.

European Corn Harvest Delays Amid Heavy Rains

In Europe, November corn futures on the Paris exchange fell by 1.3% for the week, mirroring the Chicago market trends. However, they remain supported by the weakening euro and harvest delays in the EU. In France, heavy rains have significantly delayed the harvest, with only 6% of the corn crop collected by October 7, compared to 50% last year. This marks the worst harvest progress in 11 years, affecting the largest corn producer in the EU.





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