U.S. Corn Harvest on Track for Record Speed, While Global Corn Markets Face Pricing Pressure

As of October 20, 65% of the U.S. corn crop had been harvested, marking the fastest progress since 2012. With forecasts of dry and warm weather for the next 7-10 days, the U.S. corn harvest is expected to wrap up in record time and with minimal losses. However, this rapid harvest, combined with near-record crop yields for both corn and soybeans, is creating challenges for storage, as many farmers still have leftover 2023 corn stored in anticipation of better prices.

U.S. Corn Farmers Forced to Sell at Lower Prices

Despite expectations for higher prices, many U.S. farmers are being forced to sell corn at current low rates, contributing to a surge in exports. In the past week alone, U.S. corn exports jumped by 97%, reaching 999.8 thousand tons. This brings the total for the 2024/25 marketing year to 5.8 million tons, a pace 30.6% ahead of last year and the strongest since the 2018/19 season.

Corn Prices Under Pressure on Global Markets

Corn prices are feeling the impact of increased competition and large supply volumes. On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), December corn futures traded at $160/ton, reflecting a 1.5% drop for the month and a 26% decline for the year. Similarly, corn futures on the Paris Euronext exchange fell by 1.4% over the week, closing at €211.75/ton ($229/ton).

In Ukraine, export prices for corn at Black Sea ports decreased by $3-5/ton, dropping to $195-198/ton. Ukrainian processors also reduced prices by UAH 200-300/ton, bringing them down to UAH 8,500-8,600/ton for factory delivery.

Competition from Brazil and U.S. Puts Pressure on European Corn Market

Brazil and the U.S. are ramping up their corn exports, intensifying competition with each other and with Ukraine for key markets. As of October 17, Brazil had planted 48% of its first-harvest corn, with increased rainfall accelerating the sowing process. In October, Brazil exported 3.9 million tons of corn, out of a projected total of 5 million tons for the month. However, with the U.S. harvest nearing completion, global competition is expected to increase.

In the European Union, corn imports for the 2024/25 marketing year are up 6% from the previous season, totaling 5.7 million tons. Nearly 49% of this corn comes from Ukraine, while 18.7% is from the U.S. and 16.9% from Brazil. The increased supply from Brazil and the U.S. is putting downward pressure on corn prices in both the EU and Ukraine.

Ukraine's Corn Harvest and Exports

As of October 18, Ukraine had harvested 13.2 million tons of corn from 2.4 million hectares, representing 59% of the total area, with an average yield of 5.5 tons per hectare. Ukraine’s corn exports have also risen, reaching 3.54 million tons for the 2024/25 marketing year, compared to 3 million tons during the same period last year.

Global Price Trends: A Gradual Decline

Global corn prices continue to face downward pressure. South Korean processor KFA recently purchased 65,000 tons of U.S. corn at a price of $236/ton (C&F) for January delivery. This price is down from previous purchases at $245-250/ton, reflecting a gradual decline in world corn prices.





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