Rabobank Predicts Growth in Australia’s Wheat Production, but Canola and Barley Face Declines

Despite unfavorable weather conditions in key grain-growing regions, Australia’s winter crop harvest is forecasted to grow by 1% in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY), reaching 47.1 million tons, according to Rabobank. However, this figure remains 13% below the five-year average, reflecting the continued challenges in the agricultural sector.

Wheat to Lead the Growth, While Barley and Canola Decline

Rabobank’s forecast highlights changes across various crops for the 2024 season:

• Wheat: Expected to grow by 6%, increasing by 1.6 million tons to 27.6 million tons. Despite this rise, wheat production will still be 8% lower than the five-year average.
• Barley: Predicted to decrease by 5%, with production dropping by 0.5 million tons to 10.4 million tons, which is 21% below the five-year average.
• Canola: Forecasted to decline by 21%, down by 1.2 million tons to 4.7 million tons, a figure that is 17% lower than the five-year average.

The reduction in canola production is attributed to both a smaller sown area and adverse weather conditions. While the official harvest forecast is 5.5 million tons, local analysts estimate it at closer to 5 million tons.

Australian Grain Prices Outlook for 2024/25

Experts predict the following price trends for Australian grain and oilseeds at ports by the end of 2024 and into the first half of 2025:

• Premium white wheat: 320-360 AUD/ton (€195-218/ton)
• Feed barley: 290-320 AUD/ton (€177-195/ton)
• Non-GMO canola:730-780 AUD/ton (€446-477/ton), with GMO canola priced 8-12% lower.

Canola Prices Surge Amid Production Cuts

Canola and rapeseed prices have surged in recent days due to downgraded production forecasts in Australia. November rapeseed futures on the MATIF exchange in Paris have risen by 2.1% since Monday, reaching €511.5/ton ($552/ton). Similarly, November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose by 2.8% to CAD 633/ton ($458/ton), reflecting a 7.6% increase for the month.

EU Demand to Support Canola Prices

Stable demand for vegetable oils is expected to support canola prices in the coming months. The European Union, facing restrictions on oilseed imports from Russia and Belarus due to recently introduced duties, may be forced to source canola and rapeseed within the EU or from other exporting nations, further bolstering prices.





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