Harvest in Progress, Low Yield is Expected

Farmers are currently harvesting the new crop of big cardamom, but its yield is significantly below normal levels. This shortfall has led to rising prices at auction markets. Due to unfavorable weather conditions, particularly in major producing states like Assam, experts predict a substantial loss to the upcoming crop. We expect big cardamom prices to increase gradually in the coming days.

Weather Conditions Impacting Production

The first crop of big cardamom is beginning to arrive in the country, but recent heavy rains and flooding in Assam and other northeastern states, including Meghalaya, have raised concerns about significant damage to the upcoming harvest. Many believe that these adverse weather conditions could lead to a substantial reduction in the crop yield.

In local wholesale markets, the price of large cardamom Kainchi Cut recently rose, and now priced 18,48 - 18,60 USD per kg. This increase is primarily due to the decreased arrival of the crop in the markets. The latest season has seen both the first and second crops of big cardamom turn out weaker than normal, largely due to unfavorable weather during the growth period.

Anticipated 60-70% Loss in Major Producing States

Big cardamom producing regions have experienced higher-than-normal temperatures during the crop's growth phase, contributing to a projected 60-70% loss in yield this year. Additionally, insect infestations have further damaged the crop, leading to even lower production levels. Severe losses will likely hit both the first and second crops of big cardamom, weakening their availability in domestic markets.

Weather conditions in these major producing areas continue to be unfavorable, further complicating the outlook for this year's harvest. On October 17, the average auction price of big cardamom ranged between 15,00 - 21,20 USD per kg.

Impact in Neighboring Countries

India isn't the only country experiencing trouble with big cardamom production. Nepal, a significant producer, has also seen heavy losses. Around 500 to 1,000 sacks of big cardamom are arriving daily in Nepal, with the import cost currently reported at 18,60 - 19,20 USD per kg. These higher-than-normal costs are expected to rise further in the coming months. Similarly, Bhutan and Sikkim have reported damage to their crops as well.

Export Performance of Big Cardamom and Projection

During the first three months of the 2024-25 financial year, India exported 346.98 tonnes of large cardamom worth 6.49 million USD. In comparison, during the same period last year, 247.96 tonnes were exported, generating 2.30 million USD.

The domestic and international supplies are remaining tight these days. Big cardamom prices are expected to continue rising gradually as demand increases in the coming weeks.

Conclusion: Big Cardamom Prices Set to Climb

Big cardamom is facing significant production losses due to unfavorable weather and pest infestations, leading to a sharp reduction in crop yield. This shortfall is causing a gradual rise in prices, both domestically and internationally. As supply remains constrained, traders expect prices to continue increasing in the near future.





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