Strong Demand is The Force Factor

Raisin prices have been steadily increasing in India due to strong local and inbound demand for Diwali. It's along with a reduction in producer stocks. Over the past week, prices have risen by 0,60 USD per kg in the producing markets, and traders anticipate further increases before the new crop arrives. This presents a profitable opportunity for the raisin business in the near future.

Shortage in Raisin Stock

In Sangli and Tasgaon areas of Maharashtra, the raisin crop saw a 22-23% increase this season. Although the grape yield was abundant, farmers sold a large portion as fresh fruit due to high market prices, reducing the quantity available for raisin production. As a result, farmers sold around 70% of grapes early, leading to a potential shortage of raisins. Additionally, raisin production did not meet the expected quantity from the grape harvest.

Consumers heavily consumed raisins after Holi, and now the supply pressure has significantly decreased. The Sangli and Tasgaon regions are currently experiencing stock depletion while major distributor markets in North India, including Delhi, also have low stock levels.

Continued Demand and Quality Concerns

We expect the demand for raisins to remain high even after Diwali. Its because of a large number of weddings until December 15. A further reason for the price increase is the limited availability of lower-quality raisins. Local and international demand has risen from all directions, pushing prices higher. Raisins that were previously sold at 1,38 USD per kg are now priced at 1,80 USD per kg, while medium-quality raisins have increased from 2,64 USD per kg to 2,70 USD per kg. High-quality green raisins are now being sold at 3,36 - 3,48 USD per kg.

There are also many weddings in January, February, and March, prompting stockholders to reserve their inventory for wedding-related consumption. In addition, suppliers are sending fewer lower-quality raisins to states like Bihar, Bengal, and Orissa, which supply cities such as Patna, Bhagalpur, and Kolkata.

Regional Supply Statistics

The supply of medium-quality raisins is dwindling in Uttar Pradesh, with buyers arriving from Kanpur and Lucknow. Trade has also picked up in Agra, while sellers are selling off stocks in Jaipur and Bikaner. As a result, raisin prices have surged in Delhi NCR, with green raisins being sold at prices ranging from 1,38 USD to 3,48 USD per kg, depending on quality.

Meanwhile, the trade in yellow raisins has slowed. We expect the new crop from Tasgaon and Sangli to arrive in four months, but until then, the demand for stock goods in Delhi NCR continues to rise. Given the current market conditions, traders predict that raisin prices could increase by an additional 0,90 USD per kg.

Conclusion: Raisin Prices Likely to Continue Climbing

With a significant reduction in stock and sustained demand, particularly due to weddings and festivals, we expect raisin prices to rise further. Traders are holding onto stocks, anticipating higher prices in the coming months, making it a favorable time for those in the raisin trade.





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