Retailers Are Only Support Right Now

The cumin market is currently stable, but prices may drop further if demand doesn't pick up. At present, limited international demand exists, and retail trade drives most activity. Export deals from China have involved 30-40 containers, but no other country has shown significant interest. If the market remains weak, the price of cumin could fall by another 0,12 USD per kg. Currently, cumin is priced at 3,03 USD per kg, and if the price drops to 3,00 USD per kg, it could eventually reach 2,88 USD per kg.

We expect sales to increase in the next ten days. After Diwali, demand from companies is likely to increase, particularly as Ramzan approaches in February. 

Global Cumin Market, India Performs Well

India remains the only major supplier of cumin, with Indian cumin priced at 3,05 USD per kg, while Chinese cumin is priced 0,20 - 0,25 USD higher. Other countries like Syria and Afghanistan are not currently selling, so global supply depends on India. Despite the lack of international buying support, we expect the export trade in cumin to start picking up by December.

In August, cumin exports reached 14,000-15,000 tonnes, and the expectation is that the coming months will see similar volumes. However, if demand doesn’t increase soon, prices could continue to drop further. The export market for cumin is likely to improve after Diwali, with 15-17 tonnes expected to be exported in October alone. In the months following, exports could increase further.

Lower Cumin Sowing By Farmers

This year, cumin planting is expected to be lower while traditional cumin farmers will continue to plant, no new farmers are showing interest due to the risks involved, especially with unpredictable weather. A single heavy rain in January could cause significant damage to the crop, further affecting the market. Around 30% of the cumin seeds are still with farmers, who are waiting for better prices before selling. Farmers are unwilling to sell at low prices, preferring to hold out for higher returns.

Farmers still hold around 35% of the current season's stock, while carryover stock is estimated to be 2 million bags at the beginning of the new season. 

Planting Will Start After Diwali in India

Cumin farmers will start planting after Diwali, but they expect a decrease in the area under cultivation. Farmers in Gujarat may reduce cumin planting by 25%, while those in Rajasthan expect a 10-15% decrease. We anticipate that Chinese demand will pick up after Diwali, as India currently offers the cheapest cumin globally. This increased demand may provide some support to the cumin market moving forward.

Conclusion: Cumin Market Under Pressure

With limited global demand and the risk of further price drops, the cumin market remains under pressure. However, as international demand—especially from China—begins to pick up after Diwali, there may be opportunities for price stabilization or a slight rise.





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