Brazil’s Accelerated Soybean Planting and Strong U.S. Harvest Impact Global Market Prices

Soybean planting in central Brazil is progressing quickly, with recent rains helping to nearly match last year’s pace. As of October 24, 36% of Brazil's planned soybean area was sown, compared to 40% at the same time last year. Warm weather and consistent rain over the next 7-10 days are expected to further accelerate planting.

Soybean Market Dynamics in the U.S. and Brazil

The soybean market reacted to Brazil’s favorable weather, with November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rising 1.8% early last week before declining by 2.5% to $357.9 per ton as speculative gains dissipated. In the U.S., 89% of the soybean harvest was completed by October 27, exceeding the 5-year average of 78%. The dry weather has improved U.S. yields, potentially resulting in a larger-than-expected harvest.

Despite a 6% drop in soybean exports from the U.S. during October 18-24, export levels remain high, with 2.39 million tons shipped (1.49 million tons to China), bringing the season total to 10.406 million tons—2.2% ahead of last year’s pace.

Ukrainian Soybean Market Faces Pressure from Global Supply

In Ukraine, as of October 24, soybean harvesting reached 5.62 million tons from 2.47 million hectares (93% of the area), and the country is on track for a record harvest exceeding 6 million tons. However, increased supplies of inexpensive U.S. soybeans have reduced export demand for Ukrainian soybeans, leading traders to lower purchase prices to $370-375 per ton for GMO soybeans at Black Sea ports. Prices for non-GMO soybeans in Black Sea ports also dropped to $450-455 per ton, causing some processors to halt purchases.

Brazil’s Record Soybean Production Forecast

According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Brazil is set to increase soybean production by 6% in the 2024/25 fiscal year, reaching a record 161 million tons, with exports projected to rise from 99 million to 102 million tons. Investment in advanced technologies, including genetically engineered seeds, fertilizers, and chemicals, has driven Brazil’s production growth. Despite low prices, Brazilian farmers continue to favor soybeans over corn due to their profitability and ease of cultivation.