Falling Wheat Prices on World Exchanges as Ukraine’s Prices Rise on Supply Shortage

Yesterday, wheat prices on global exchanges declined by 1.7-1.9%, marking a weekly loss of 2.5-3.8% as improved crop forecasts in Argentina and Australia, along with favorable weather in the U.S., influenced prices. In contrast, Ukrainian wheat prices continue to rise due to a shortage of offers, though they may soon align with falling prices in the EU, which dropped by 3.3% over the week.

Argentina’s and U.S. Wheat Forecasts and Export Updates

According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is expected to reach 19.5 million tons for the 2024/25 season, while the USDA has a slightly lower estimate of 18 million tons. Wheat exports from Argentina are projected to be 13.3 million tons, nearing the record of 15.4 million tons in the 2021/22 season. Meanwhile, in the U.S., 80% of winter wheat has been planted as of October 27, with 38% in good or excellent condition. Wheat exports from the U.S. have reached 9.5 million tons, 33.5% higher than the same period last year.

Wheat Futures Movement and European Price Trends

December futures for wheat fell as follows:

• Soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago: down 1.9% to $205.3/t
• Hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City: down 1.9% to $206.3/t
• Hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis: down 1.7% to $218.7/t

Conversely, December wheat futures on Paris Euronext rose by 0.1% to €217/t ($234.5/t), despite a 3.3% weekly decrease in European wheat prices. In Ukraine, purchase prices for food wheat rose to $210-214/t (€9,800-10,100/t) and fodder wheat to $203-205/t (€9,500-9,600/t) at Black Sea ports, driven by limited supply and a stronger dollar exchange rate.

Challenges in Egypt’s Wheat Procurement

Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) faces delays in receiving Russian wheat purchased out of tender in September due to incomplete documentation and vessel assignment issues. According to E. Zernyn, head of Russia’s Union of Exporters, traders refused to supply the grain after an intermediary company allegedly attempted to bypass standard procurement practices. GASC may announce a new tender to secure additional wheat supplies.





Click here to reach our trading platfrom CMBroker