U.S. Wheat Supply Holds Steady as Harvest Progresses

The wheat harvesting season gets underway across major production regions. Namely the United States, Canada, Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union—the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reported no major adjustments to the American wheat balance sheet in its latest monthly report. At the end of the 2023-24 season, the U.S. wheat surplus stood at 828 million bushels, which will carry over to bolster the supply for 2024-25.

Global Stocks Increase Despite Regional Production Fluctuations

On a global scale, the USDA has raised its estimate for total outstanding wheat stock by 0.60 million tonnes, bringing the projected figure to 257.22 million tonnes. This upward revision is largely due to an increased stock estimate in Canada. However, wheat production estimates in the European Union faced a drastic reduction of 4 million tonnes due to less favorable growing conditions. In contrast, the estimate for Ukraine’s wheat production was increased by 0.70 million tonnes.

EU Wheat Production Declines Because of Adverse Weather

Wheat production in the European Union is expected to drop to 114.4 million tonnes, as forecasted by an independent analyst. This figure reflects a reduction of 2.1 million tonnes compared to the August forecast and marks a 10% decline from last year’s production. Poor weather conditions across several European countries, as well as natural disasters, have heavily impacted EU wheat yields. Its leaving an uncertain outlook for European suppliers this season.

Procurement and Planting Underway Across the Globe

The government grain procurement agency in Egypt, known as the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), recently purchased 0.43 million tonnes of wheat, which is already being transported. Asia will begin wheat sowing in October, while Australia has reported that its wheat crop is ready for harvest. Meanwhile, key wheat-producing countries China, India, and Russia are experiencing favorable growing conditions, boosting confidence in stable production for the current season.

Conclusion

Despite challenges in the European Union and fluctuations in global stocks, the overall outlook for wheat production remains cautiously optimistic. With growing areas in Asia soon to begin sowing and stable conditions in top-producing countries. Global wheat supply appears well-positioned to meet demand. Although region-specific issues may affect pricing and trade dynamics in the coming months.





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