Adverse Weather Cuts EU Crop Yields as Imports of Oil Crops Surge

In its October report, the crop monitoring service MARS reduced 2024 EU production forecasts for soybean, sunflower, and corn due to lower yields in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, and Italy. Heavy rainfall in September, following a dry, hot summer, affected crop conditions across these regions.

Revised Crop Yield Forecasts for Key EU Crops

MARS has revised yield projections downward from its September estimates:

• Corn: Reduced from 6.85 to 6.66 tons per hectare, 9% below the 5-year average
• Sunflower: Lowered from 1.98 to 1.86 tons per hectare, a 13% decrease
• Soybean: Dropped from 2.81 to 2.72 tons per hectare

Conversely, sugar beet yield estimates increased from 74.7 to 75.4 tons per hectare, a 3% rise.

Strategie Grains Lowers Sunflower Harvest Forecast, Imports on the Rise

Strategie Grains also adjusted its sunflower harvest forecast for the EU, reducing it to 8.8 million tons, the lowest level since 2016 and 11% below 2023 levels. Rain in France and Romania delayed harvesting, while rapeseed production is forecast to remain steady at 16.7 million tons, 16.5% below last year’s harvest.

Rising Imports of Oil Crops and Falling Oil Imports

The European Commission reports that EU imports of oil crops have increased in the 2024/25 marketing year, particularly for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. As of October 20, oil crop imports rose compared to last season:

• Soybeans: Up 7% to 3.73 million tons
• Rapeseed: Up 9% to 1.69 million tons
• Sunflower: Up 62% to 160 thousand tons
• Soybean Meal: Up 9% to 5.36 million tons

At the same time, the import of vegetable oils has declined:

• Soybean oil: Down 65% to 80,000 tons
• Rapeseed oil: Down 51% to 90,000 tons
• Sunflower oil: Down 18% to 590,000 tons
• Palm oil: Down 17% to 980,000 tons

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