Stable Demand and Stable Prices

The global cumin market remains steady, with prices holding stable due to a balanced demand from key markets. Trade analysts report a lull in demand for Indian cumin, particularly from countries like Bangladesh and China. China’s interest in cumin has been especially low. Buyers plan to resume significant purchasing only after selling half of their current stock, likely around November or December.

Supply-Demand Balance Maintains Price Stability

The current price stability of Indian cumin is driven by a well-matched daily supply and demand, with 10,000 to 12,000 bags hitting the market daily. This alignment is keeping prices in check. And analysts anticipate prices will stay within a stable range until November unless notable changes in cumin sowing data emerge. Rajasthan, a primary cumin-growing region, will begin sowing after Diwali, and recent favorable weather signals a promising start to the season.

Export Growth Boosts Competitiveness of Indian Cumin

India’s cumin exports are forecasted to reach 225,000 tonnes this year, marking an increase of 45,000 tonnes from last year's 180,000 tonnes. This boost stems largely from lower cumin prices, enhancing India’s competitive edge in the global market. Major export markets, including Brazil, Mexico, and the U.S., have shown steady demand for high-quality cumin, helping to drive this growth. Meanwhile, China’s production is expected to fall to 40,000 tonnes, a decline from earlier projections, making Indian cumin even more appealing internationally as prices between Indian and Chinese cumin now approach similar levels.

Forecast for Price Increase as Supply Tightens

Though the cumin market is stable now, industry experts expect prices may rise as demand increases. With about 35% of this season’s cumin stock still held by farmers, growers are reportedly waiting for higher prices before selling, which could lead to upward pressure on prices.Tightening supply and rising demand, especially with growing export volumes, are projected to drive a moderate price increase by year-end.

Conclusion

The cumin market should remain stable for now. But a promising export outlook and the upcoming sowing season will likely drive prices up by year-end. India's competitive cumin pricing are on edge. And lower Chinese production may keep global demand for Indian cumin strong. Its likely leading to a gradual price increase as supply tightens.





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