Supply Reduction from Key Black Sea Countries Expected to Tighten Global Sunflower Oil Market

In the 2024/25 marketing year, sunflower oil exports from Black Sea countries are projected to decline by 18%. This estimate was presented by Kristina Yavorskaya, a senior oilseed market analyst at the international pricing agency Argus, during the XXII International "Oil and Oilseed Industry-2024" Conference in Kyiv on October 30.

Lower Harvest Yields Across Key Eastern European Regions

Yavorskaya highlighted a significant reduction in sunflower harvests across crucial Eastern European areas like Bulgaria and Romania, where yields have dropped to their lowest levels in a decade, totaling 1.6 million and 1.4 million tons, respectively. The USDA forecasts a decrease in Ukraine’s sunflower harvest to 12.5 million tons, while Argus anticipates an even lower figure of 12 million tons. As of October 24, Ukraine has harvested only 9.5 million tons of oilseeds.

Rising Sunflower Prices Amid Low Processing Margins

Since the start of the season, prices for Ukrainian sunflower seeds and sunflower oil have surged by 24% and 11%, respectively. However, processing margins for producers remain low, putting additional pressure on the market.

Russia’s Harvest and Export Outlook

In Russia, Argus projects a harvest of 16.3 million tons, aligning closely with the USDA’s estimate of 16 million tons. By October 22, Russia had harvested 13.8 million tons of sunflower seeds, 4.8 million tons of rapeseed, and 6.6 million tons of soybeans.





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