After several weeks of continuous price increases, the Turkish hazelnut market has temporarily stabilized at a high level. However, experts do not expect this to be a lasting trend. The market leader keeps demand high, while farmers speculate on better prices, thus limiting availability. The coming weeks could be decisive for price developments.

Market Situation and Price Information

The Turkish hazelnut market has reached a temporary high-price stability after a period of continuous increases. Prices remain volatile due to quality differences and the speculative stance of farmers, leading to a wide price range. Current prices for Turkish hazelnuts (DAP Central Europe) by processing type and size are as follows:

Market Drivers and Influencing Factors

The primary price driver remains the purchasing activity of the market leader, who is progressing slower than expected. It is anticipated that they may soon increase their purchase bid to secure sufficient raw materials. Currently, the market leader offers 130 TRY/kg for in-shell hazelnuts as per the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) guidelines, with experts predicting an increase to at least 135 TRY/kg soon.

Additionally, the Turkish Lira has shown sideways movement against the Euro and USD, meaning currency fluctuations are not significantly impacting raw material prices at the moment. This stability might shift if the central bank takes further steps to manage the Lira.

Quality and Harvest Factors

The market is also affected by this season's variable hazelnut quality. Approximately 75% of the harvest is already in the market, yet many farmers continue to withhold their produce, awaiting higher prices. This could lead to a supply shortfall and push prices higher in the coming weeks.

Market Sentiment and Forecast

There is a mixed sentiment among buyers regarding future price developments. While some are seeking long-term coverage, others are monitoring the market for now. The high demand for information hints at upcoming contract conclusions. The following weeks will be crucial in determining whether prices will rise further, especially if farmers remain cautious and demand holds steady.

Export Trends and Potential Risks

Export figures show constant demand, but rising prices could prompt some buyer groups, especially from China, to look for alternative sources. Additionally, the chocolate industry faces uncertain sales forecasts, which could lead to more cautious purchasing strategies.

Conclusion

The Turkish hazelnut market remains volatile, with signs pointing to further price increases. The high price level and farmers' speculative restraint could lead to a tight market, particularly if the market leader raises their bid and demand continues to be strong.





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