Impact of High Temperatures on Almond Harvest

Crop experts in California report that unusually high temperatures this fall have accelerated the almond harvest. With yields expected to surpass last year’s output. However, these hot conditions are raising concerns about almond quality. Due to rapid drying from the heat, almonds worth over 353.8 million USD have been harvested, marking a 313 percent increase compared to the same time last year. Yet, the fast pace is largely due to the weather’s impact rather than an actual crop size increase. And with moisture levels 1–2 percent below normal, the crop volume could ultimately suffer.

Slowdown in The Shipment

Despite the quick harvest, the first month of the new crop year recorded a slowdown in shipments, with only 205.30 million USD shipped—a 20.63 percent decrease from last year’s 258.65 million USD. Analysts attribute this to the limited carryover from the previous season, which impacted early shipments. Still, expectations for September remain high as new crop exports are expected to ramp up, contributing to stronger fourth-quarter performance.

Exports Sales Performance

Domestically, almond shipments in August rose by a modest 1 percent to 75.70 million USD, continuing a steady growth trend. However, exports faced a 29.5 percent drop, totaling only 129.60 million USD compared to 183.73 million USD the previous year. This dip is largely due to quality concerns from last year’s harvest, leading to fewer high-quality almonds available for export. Total new crop sales in August hit 194.40 million USD pounds, a 37.8 percent decrease from last year’s 312.32 million USD, as crop quality concerns caused some buyers to hesitate on new orders.

Upcoming Industry Events

Industry commitments are down by 2.3 percent at 741.27 million USD, with domestic buyers wary of rising prices. Meanwhile, export commitments increased by 14 percent as international buyers prepared for the holiday season. Although California’s final almond yield estimate is uncertain, it remains forecasted at 2.80 billion pounds. With regional variations in yields, many growers are delaying sales until they have a clearer view of crop potential. The almond trade eagerly anticipates further insights in the upcoming Almond Position Report and the Almond Conference scheduled for December 10-12, 2024.

Conclusion: Heat is Hard For California

California’s almond industry faces a challenging season as high temperatures impact quality and market performance. With crop uncertainties persisting, growers and trade professionals are closely monitoring market developments and upcoming industry reports.





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