Good Vs Bad Oil Seed Crop Production

Agriculture Indian market trends over the last month reveal promising output expectations for several Kharif crops, including oil seeds like soybean, groundnut, jowar, and niger, with mandi (market yard) prices indicating potential year-over-year growth. Experts anticipate declines for other major crops such as tur, urad, moong, sunflower, and sesame. 

Soybean, Groundnut, and Jowar Show Promising Trends 

Mandi prices over the last 30 days suggest substantial growth in the production of soybean, groundnut, and jowar. These indicators point towards higher yields than last season. As per 2023’s harvest, soybean production reached 13.06 million tonnes (mt), groundnut output was 8.66 mt, and jowar production totaled 1.51 mt. These crops are anticipated to see improvements, contributing positively to overall Kharif production. The production of oil seeds such as soybean and groundnut is showing positive trends, which contributes to overall market optimism.

Stable Yields Expected for Staple Grains 

Staple grains like rice, maize, bajra, and ragi are expected to maintain their production levels from last year, according to current mandi prices. In the previous Kharif season, rice led with an output of 113.26 mt, while maize produced 22.25 mt, bajra totaled 9.66 mt, and ragi came in at 1.67 mt. Although official estimates are delayed, initial market trends suggest these crops will see stable outputs. While stable yields are expected for grains, oilseed production such as soybean may offer significant insights.

Reduced Sowing Area for Cotton 

Cotton prices have seen a slight decline in the last 30 days despite a reduced sowing area. With cotton prices averaging $0,84 per kg in mandis, prices have fallen marginally from $0,86 per kg in October. The 2024 Kharif season recorded a cotton sowing area of 1.13 million hectares, down from 1.27 million hectares in the previous year. The reduced acreage may reflect in cotton output, pending final production reports.

Government’s Pending Production Estimates 

Typically released in September, the government’s first advance estimates for Kharif production are still awaited. The Agriculture Ministry has held consultations with industry experts. Including those from CRISIL Research, Agriwatch, and India Pulses and Grain Association, to assess crop outlooks for 2024. Industry experts like V.K. Jain highlight that while private traders provide insights on potential yields, they rely on government data, particularly for crops grown across multiple states.

Rajasthan State Production Estimates

Rajasthan, one of India’s major crop producers, has released initial production estimates, indicating positive figures for several crops: bajra at 4.9 mt, moong at 2.28 mt, maize at 2.34 mt, jowar at 0.62 mt, urad at 0.2 mt, groundnut at 2.27 mt, soybean at 1.42 mt, castor at 0.3 mt, and sesamum at 88,379 tonnes. These state estimates offer preliminary insights as the national data is awaited.

Conclusion: 

Mandi prices highlight mixed outcomes for the 2024 Kharif season. With expectations of higher yields for soybean, groundnut, and jowar, while declines are anticipated for other key crops. Official estimates from the Agriculture Ministry, when released, will provide critical data to stakeholders across the agricultural sector.





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